See update for June 1, 2025, at end of post.
When Vladimir Putin made it clear he was seeking to emulate Peter the Great,[1] the obvious implication was that he had no intention of stopping with Ukraine. I had already taken a screenshot of a map of the Russian Empire from the New York Times in 2014.[2] So it’s interesting now to see a former Central Intelligence Agency director warning that, indeed, Putin intends to continue on beyond Ukraine—Lithuania might soon be his next target.[3]
The map in my screenshot actually shows the extent of the Russian Empire in 1880,[4] when Alexander II was tsar. But if there’s a reason to imagine that Putin is any less ambitious, I’m unaware of it and the logic of Putin’s assertion that he is ‘reconquering’ Russian lands[5] seems inescapably to point in that direction. And yes, as the former CIA director observes, this includes North Atlantic Treaty Organization territory,[6] not just Lithuania, but Estonia, Latvia, Moldova, the majority of Ukraine, and a significant chunk of Poland.
This is why, after Putin began his second assault on Ukraine in 2022 and he made this bald claim, I assumed war with NATO was inevitable and figured we might as well get on with it. It was also a lot less clear at that time that Ukraine would prove as resilient as it has and I never imagined we might reach the point of possibly imminent Russia-NATO war[7] with Donald Trump back as president.
“In Donald Trump, America has a rogue president who has a 30-year track record [as of 2017] of opposing key elements of the [international] order, including free trade and alliances. Vladimir Putin wants to overthrow the order because he believes it poses a direct threat to his regime.” Trump was somewhat restrained in his first term by “the adults in the room”—chief executive officers and military generals he relied upon,[8] but in his second term, he has surrounded himself with “loyalists”—sycophants. And Trump’s affection for Putin hardly needs mentioning. Putin appears to reciprocate,[9] but in his actions, it seems to me much more like Putin neither respects nor fears Trump.
Trump appears—much too slowly—to be realizing that Putin has been playing him “like a fiddle.”[10] Whether that translates into action remains to be seen but a significant chunk of Trump’s white Christian nationalist support incorrectly sees a fellow traveler on “traditional values” in Putin’s Russia.[11] For these white Christian nationalists, cosmopolitan Ukraine is the enemy, not Russia.
It’s hard for me to imagine that our delusional raging narcissist-in-chief will abandon his hope for a negotiated peace. He covets a Nobel Peace Prize, at least in part because Barack Obama (whose legacy Trump sought to erase in his first term) won one.[12] And Trump has repeatedly demonstrated that while he thinks criticizing Volodymyr Zelenskyy is a cool thing to do (at least for his base), Putin should be handled with kid gloves.
So it becomes a serious question whether Trump, with his disdain for alliances,[13] would indeed respond to a Russian attack on NATO territory as that former CIA director implicitly expects.[14] If Putin does indeed attack NATO territory, it might be Europe alone responding.
Update, June 1, 2025: German General Carsten Breuer echoes former U.S. Central Intelligence Agency director David Petraeus, warning that Russia is building tanks and preparing munitions not only for Ukraine[15] but also for “new military structures always facing the West,”[16] likely in the Baltics. “Gen[eral] Breuer singled out the so-called Suwalki Gap, an area that borders Lithuania, Poland, Russia and Belarus, as one of the most vulnerable.”[17] Petraeus had also mentioned Lithuania.[18]
[1] Julian O’Shaughnessy, “I’m reconquering just like Peter the Great, insists Vladimir Putin,” <i>Times</i>, June 10, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/president-putin-creates-police-department-to-impose-martial-law-xqhlt79fn
[2] New York Times, "Ukraine Crisis in Maps," n.d., http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/02/27/world/europe/ukraine-divisions-crimea.html
[3] Joshua Nair, “What would happen if Russia invaded a NATO country as former CIA boss reveals where he thinks Putin will attack next,” LADBible, May 30, 2025, https://www.ladbible.com/news/world-news/russia-war-nato-countries-cia-boss-vladimir-putin-880238-20250530
[4] New York Times, "Ukraine Crisis in Maps," n.d., http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/02/27/world/europe/ukraine-divisions-crimea.html
[5] Julian O’Shaughnessy, “I’m reconquering just like Peter the Great, insists Vladimir Putin,” <i>Times</i>, June 10, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/president-putin-creates-police-department-to-impose-martial-law-xqhlt79fn
[6] Joshua Nair, “What would happen if Russia invaded a NATO country as former CIA boss reveals where he thinks Putin will attack next,” LADBible, May 30, 2025, https://www.ladbible.com/news/world-news/russia-war-nato-countries-cia-boss-vladimir-putin-880238-20250530
[7] Joshua Nair, “What would happen if Russia invaded a NATO country as former CIA boss reveals where he thinks Putin will attack next,” LADBible, May 30, 2025, https://www.ladbible.com/news/world-news/russia-war-nato-countries-cia-boss-vladimir-putin-880238-20250530
[8] Thomas Wright, “In the age of Trump, maybe it gets worse from here,” Irish Times, November 4, 2017, https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/us/in-the-age-of-trump-maybe-it-gets-worse-from-here-1.3278884
[9] Keir Simmons and Alexander Smith, “Friends without benefits: How the long-running Trump-Putin bromance is still not delivering,” NBC News, May 20, 2025, https://www.nbcnews.com/world/russia/trump-putin-russia-ukraine-war-ceasefire-talks-zelenskyy-turkey-rcna207903
[10] New Republic, “Vladimir Putin Is Playing Trump Like a Fiddle,” May 29, 2025, https://newrepublic.com/post/195859/vladimir-putin-playing-trump-like-fiddle
[11] Adrian Karatnycky, “Russia Is No Conservative Haven,” Foreign Policy, September 6, 2024, https://apple.news/AlQ6AGv8_SJ-uR7Xn3atQkA
[12] Peter Nicholas, “Trump still really wants to win a Nobel Peace Prize,” NBC News, March 1, 2025, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-really-wants-win-nobel-peace-prize-rcna193330
[13] Thomas Wright, “In the age of Trump, maybe it gets worse from here,” Irish Times, November 4, 2017, https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/us/in-the-age-of-trump-maybe-it-gets-worse-from-here-1.3278884
[14] Joshua Nair, “What would happen if Russia invaded a NATO country as former CIA boss reveals where he thinks Putin will attack next,” LADBible, May 30, 2025, https://www.ladbible.com/news/world-news/russia-war-nato-countries-cia-boss-vladimir-putin-880238-20250530
[15] Frank Gardner and Tessa Wong, “Russia may attack Nato in next four years, German defence chief warns,” British Broadcasting Corporation, June 1, 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62v63gl8rvo
[16] Carsten Breuer, quoted in Frank Gardner and Tessa Wong, “Russia may attack Nato in next four years, German defence chief warns,” British Broadcasting Corporation, June 1, 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62v63gl8rvo
[17] Frank Gardner and Tessa Wong, “Russia may attack Nato in next four years, German defence chief warns,” British Broadcasting Corporation, June 1, 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62v63gl8rvo
[18] Joshua Nair, “What would happen if Russia invaded a NATO country as former CIA boss reveals where he thinks Putin will attack next,” LADBible, May 30, 2025, https://www.ladbible.com/news/world-news/russia-war-nato-countries-cia-boss-vladimir-putin-880238-20250530