They never learn
War doesn't work
See updates through June 21, 2026, at end of post.
A money quote if ever I saw it: “The [Donald Trump] administration is fighting hard to persuade the American public and American politicians that this [memorandum of understanding declaring a 60-day ceasefire in the war with Iran] is not a defeat for the United States.”[1] But there is no regime change, no agreement on Iranian proxy militias (e.g., Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis), and no substantial agreement on Iran’s nuclear program beyond that they will not develop nuclear weapons, which they have long insisted they have no intention of doing. There is to be a $300 billion fund to reconstruct Iran and a lifting of all sanctions against Iran, Iran is to retain joint control with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. is to withdraw its naval blockade and unfreeze frozen Iranian funds.[2] Indeed, it does very much appear “[t]he agreement is a record of US failure. People will see it and judge.”[3]
Meanwhile, Binyamin Netanyahu is trying to declare victory while claiming not to know the details of the agreement[4] in the face of ferocious domestic criticism[5] that will likely compel him to undermine or sabotage the deal. That criticism is echoed on this side of the Atlantic as well as it is clear that the war achieved nothing.[6]
This was an utterly stupid war from the start. It is now even more clearly a failed war, which is kind of how the use of force seems often to go: Hubris rather than intellect drives an attack, leading to disaster, as we see in the U.S. war on Vietnam, the Soviet Union’s war on Afghanistan, the U.S. wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and Russia’s war on Ukraine, and the powers that be never learn an obvious lesson.
Update, June 20, 2026: Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire which Israel promptly violated.[7] Iran had insisted on including Lebanon in the ceasefire and holding the U.S. responsible for ensuring Israeli compliance.[8] The talks aimed toward a permanent peace are accordingly on hold.[9]
Israel and Hezbollah subsequently “renewed” their ceasefire, but it appears the fighting has continued.[10] All of which suggests that Donald Trump either cannot or will not exert the control over Israel that Iran expects under the memorandum of understanding.[11]
Update, June 21, 2026: Owing to continued fighting in Lebanon, Iran claims—and the U.S. denies—it is again closing the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. claims to be in control of the strait. Nonetheless, talks between Iran and the U.S. are expected to begin today (June 21).[12]
[1] Mike Hanna, quoted in Al Jazeera, “Diplomat confirms that US and Iran have signed MoU electronically,” June 17, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/17/iran-confirms-that-mou-has-been-signed-electronically-by-both-sides
[2] Al Jazeera, “Diplomat confirms that US and Iran have signed MoU electronically,” June 17, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/17/iran-confirms-that-mou-has-been-signed-electronically-by-both-sides; Al Jazeera, “Read the US account of unreleased 14-point Iran ceasefire memorandum,” June 17, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/17/read-the-us-account-of-unreleased-14-point-iran-ceasefire-memorandum
[3] Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, quoted in Al Jazeera, “Diplomat confirms that US and Iran have signed MoU electronically,” June 17, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/17/iran-confirms-that-mou-has-been-signed-electronically-by-both-sides
[4] Nava Freiberg and Lazar Berman, “Netanyahu distances himself but avoids criticizing US-Iran deal, claims war’s main goals have been achieved,” Times of Israel, June 16, 2026, https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-avoids-criticizing-us-iran-deal-claims-wars-main-goals-have-been-achieved/
[5] Simon Speakman Cordall, “Israel went to war with Iran, but Netanyahu may be the loser,” Al Jazeera, June 16, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/16/israel-went-to-war-with-iran-netanyahu-may-be-loser; Reuters, “‘Terrible’ US-Iran deal could deepen Netanyahu’s rift with Trump,” South China Morning Post, June 16, 2026, https://www.scmp.com/news/world/middle-east/article/3357225/terrible-us-iran-deal-could-deepen-netanyahus-rift-trump; Times of Israel, “Ministers say Israel won’t be bound by Iran deal, as opposition castigates Netanyahu’s ‘absolute failure,’” June 15, 2026, https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-vows-to-stay-in-south-lebanon-if-iran-strikes-well-hit-it-with-full-force/; Lucy Williamson, “Iran deal presents political nightmare for Netanyahu,” British Broadcasting Corporation, June 16, 2026, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj4gnqw8j52o
[6] Julia Ioffe, “Trump’s Surrender at Versailles,” Puck, June 18, 2026, https://puck.news/all-of-washington-is-furious-at-trumps-iran-deal/
[7] Al Jazeera, “Israel continues attacks on Lebanon despite agreeing to ceasefire,” June 19, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/19/israel-continues-attacks-on-lebanon-despite-agreeing-to-ceasefire
[8] Al Jazeera, “Read the US account of unreleased 14-point Iran ceasefire memorandum,” June 17, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/17/read-the-us-account-of-unreleased-14-point-iran-ceasefire-memorandum
[9] Al Jazeera, “Israel continues attacks on Lebanon despite agreeing to ceasefire,” June 19, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/19/israel-continues-attacks-on-lebanon-despite-agreeing-to-ceasefire
[10] Jason Burke and William Christou, “Israel and Hezbollah renew ceasefire after deadly flareup disrupts opening of Iran talks,” Guardian, June 20, 2026, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/19/israel-hezbollah-renew-ceasefire-lebanon-us-iran-agreement
[11] Al Jazeera, “Read the US account of unreleased 14-point Iran ceasefire memorandum,” June 17, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/17/read-the-us-account-of-unreleased-14-point-iran-ceasefire-memorandum
[12] Al Jazeera, “US-Iran talks to kick off Sunday in Switzerland, says Pakistan,” June 20, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/20/us-iran-talks-to-kick-off-sunday-in-switzerland-says; France 24, “Iran says closed Strait of Hormuz as US deal hits obstacle ahead of Swiss talks,” June 20, 2026, https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260620-iran-says-closed-strait-of-hormuz-as-us-deal-hits-obstacle-ahead-of-swiss-talks