The undeterred ambition of Vladimir Putin
Even if he loses, Ukraine and the rest of Europe remain at risk
Simon Tisdall thinks Vladimir Putin—as distinguished from Russia—is losing, largely due to the economic impact of the war on Ukraine and the attendant sanctions.[1] My first reaction is to hope he’s right, but I have to say that most of the analyses I’ve see suggest that Russia’s economy is not yet bad enough to compel a change of course. I have read, as well, that Putin’s likely successors would be more likely than not to double down on Putin’s war.
Putin needs to be humiliated—it is the one form of influence he understands.[2] And for that to work, he needs to remain in power, long enough for Ukraine to defeat Russia, which seems unlikely for the foreseeable future. Tisdall thinks it impossible, thus his distinction between Russia and Putin. Tisdall also argues that the growing economic peril is a reason for Putin to persist in his war.[3]
Putin, born in October 1952, is not quite seven years older than I am. He has access to the best health care Russia can offer. Though I have seen questions raised about his health, we can only hope, not expect, that he might die soon. It’s very likely he outlives Donald Trump, who would be succeeded by J. D. Vance,[4] whom I think rather likely to be even less supportive of Ukraine.[5]
So Tisdall’s analysis isn’t the good news it appears to be. The war in Ukraine is now one of bloody attrition, which is likely why most of the analyses I’ve seen fear that the much larger Russia is likely—at great cost—ultimately to prevail. Indeed, Putin seems sufficiently confident that he rattles his saber at North Atlantic Treaty Organization countries[6] and there has been more talk of war between Europe and Russia.
In an earlier iteration of this blog—now off line—I warned that the inescapable logic of Putin’s ambition was not just a conquest of Ukraine but of at least some NATO territory. The news has not improved since.
[1] Simon Tisdall, “Putin should have accepted Trump’s deal. Now Russia’s collapsing economy could lead to his downfall,” Guardian, December 7, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/dec/07/putin-accept-trump-deal-russia-economy-ukraine-war
[2] Julia Ioffe, “About a Boy: The Roots of Putin’s Evil,” Puck, May 10, 2022, https://puck.news/about-a-boy-the-roots-of-putins-evil/
[3] Simon Tisdall, “Putin should have accepted Trump’s deal. Now Russia’s collapsing economy could lead to his downfall,” Guardian, December 7, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/dec/07/putin-accept-trump-deal-russia-economy-ukraine-war
[4] David Benfell, “The publicly absent Donald Trump,” Not Housebroken, October 10, 2025, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/the-publicly-absent-donald-trump
[5] David Benfell, “We can only hope that this is Ukraine’s darkest hour,” Not Housebroken, November 22, 2025, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/we-can-only-hope-that-this-is-ukraines; James Landale, “Vance took the lead attacking Zelensky. Why?” British Broadcasting Corporation, March 1, 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cewkg71d8rlo
[6] Dan Sabbagh, “Nato scrambles jets as Russian drones make deepest incursion into Romania,” Guardian, November 25, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/nov/25/nato-scrambles-jets-russian-drones-deepest-incursion-romania; Pjotr Sauer and Andrew Roth, “Russia ‘ready’ for war if Europe starts it, Putin says, as US peace talks end without progress,” Guardian, December 2, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/dec/02/witkoff-in-moscow-for-talks-as-putin-claims-to-have-taken-key-ukrainian-city