The tail wagging the dog in Israel's attack on Iran
Donald Trump and Binyamin Netanyahu will live another day (politically)
See updates through June 29, 2025, at end of post.
Israel has launched a major air attack on Iran, allegedly targeting the latter country’s heavily fortified nuclear program. According to Drop Site, “The likely inability of Israel to fully destroy [Iran’s nuclear] program, despite being able to strike at various targets inside Iran, has led some military experts to conclude that the real goal of any attack is simply to fire the starting gun for a larger regional war with no determined endpoint. Such a war would potentially drag the U.S. in as a participant, including to defend Israel from Iranian retaliation, even at a time when segments of the Trump administration and its domestic political base are expressing intense frustration over fighting continued conflicts in the Middle East.”[1]
The fear that the U.S. might be dragged into Israel’s broader war in the Middle East is not new[2] but having failed to accomplish this goal before, Binyamin Netanyahu may well be trying again: “‘Both the Israeli and U.S. government, as well as our respective military and intelligence services, are fully aware that Israeli airstrikes on Iran are not going to successfully destroy the Iranian nuclear program. We are dealing with underground facilities dispersed over a large country, and human capital that knows how to rebuild things. At most, such attacks would set back progress for a period of months, or less than a year,’ said Harrison Mann, a former U.S. army major and executive officer of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) for the Middle East/Africa Regional Center. ‘The only thing that you can really achieve by trying to bomb Iranian nuclear sites is to provoke a reprisal by Iran that helps escalate the situation into a larger war and draws in the United States. That’s what any purported effort to bomb away the Iranian nuclear program is actually aiming at.’”[3]
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has denied U.S. involvement in the attacks but vaguely warned that in its expected retaliation, Iran “should not target U.S. interests or personnel.”[4] But Donald Trump may be feeling his oats, having scheduled a military parade[5] and deployed the California National Guard and Marine Corps to the Los Angeles area to counter protests against the administration’s deportation dragnet.[6]
Both Trump and Netanyahu have reasons to divert attention from domestic problems. Netanyahu’s battle with Israel’s judiciary, at least in part motivated by his trial on corruption charges, is longstanding. But also the country’s high court recently ruled against Netanyahu’s attempt to fire the head of the country’s intelligence service.[7] Netanyahu also faces political unrest in his attempt to reconcile demands that ultraorthodox Jews serve in the genocide in Gaza,[8] where Hamas and other groups continue to hold a dwindling number of Israeli hostages.
Trump, too, faces an ongoing judicial challenge[9] and protests on the streets against his effort to impose a competitive authoritarian regime,[10] in which elections might still be held and courts might still hold trials but all are subordinate to white Christian nationalism.
As always, a lot of people are dying to divert attention from domestic political problems. And we should be clear that there is no hope that the U.S. and Israel can prevail against Iran, a more populous country than either Afghanistan or Iraq. But Trump and Netanyahu will live another day.
Update, June 16, 2025: News of the United States (NOTUS) reports that as “[m]ultiple reports over the weekend suggested that Israel pleaded with the U.S. to get more involved in the conflict,” Donald Trump “wouldn’t rule out direct U.S. involvement in the conflict.” It appears that Trump’s remark applies to a context in which Iran strikes U.S. interests (however Trump defines them).[11]
It has been widely reported that Israel would need U.S. “bunker buster” bombs dropped from U.S. B-2 aircraft to do serious damage to Iran’s nuclear program. Meanwhile, it also appears that Iran’s retaliatory strikes are penetrating Israeli defenses.[12] Yves Smith of Naked Capitalism summarizes Trump’s options and the pressures upon him, both for and against coming to Israel’s aid, but warns that such analysis presumes that Trump is rational, which of course we know he isn’t.[13]
All that said, the Washington Post reports that “[t]he Pentagon is expanding its military presence in the Middle East and Europe in response to worsening hostilities between Israel and Iran, U.S. officials said Monday, sending refueling planes and an additional aircraft carrier among the resources dispatched.” This is supposedly to beef up U.S. defenses of its own “interests.”[14] (I’m still waiting to what, exactly, those are.) Among other moves, “The [U.S.S.] Nimitz, carrying about 5,000 sailors and dozens of fighter jets, on Monday was making its way west through the Strait of Malacca and is expected to head across the Indian Ocean to join U.S. warships already in the Middle East.”[15] We should note that naval forces in the Indian Ocean more directly threaten Iran than guard obvious U.S. “interests.”
Finally, U.S. claims of non-involvement should be taken with more than a grain of salt: “While Trump and other senior U.S. officials have said that the United States is not participating in the strikes, Washington is supporting Israel in other ways, including fending off Iranian attacks. U.S. defense officials said Friday that American ballistic missile defense systems, such as Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), were involved in taking down Iranian drones and missiles.
“Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said during a news conference Monday that American pilots also are targeting Iranian drones. Netanyahu said he was in regular contact with Trump.”[16]
Update, June 18, 2025: I fear I was right to suggest that Donald Trump may have been feeling his oats with a military parade in Washington, D.C., that seems not to have been the spectacle he hoped for,[17] and his already noted deployment of the California National Guard and Marines to the Los Angeles area. Though Trump has apparently yet to order U.S. forces in, and despite considerable popular and political opposition, his rhetoric now leans heavily in that direction and Politico reports that a Trump administration official claims the administration is moving toward intervention[18] while Binyamin Netanyahu promises Iranians “freedom” from Iran’s theocratic regime. We can only hope that Trump’s bellicose rhetoric is a negotiating posture widely disparaged as “Trump Always Chickens Out” (TACO).[19]
We can only hope. If all this posturing is indeed a negotiating ploy, it likely founders on substance: Israel’s claim, with which it justifies its attack on Iran and which is now echoed by Trump, that Iran is developing nuclear weapons[20] is disputed by U.S. intelligence assessments.[21] And the claim that the war can be constrained to air operations is laughable: Iran may have undeclared facilities that would need to found, and even if it doesn’t have such facilities, ground operations will be needed to confirm destruction of declared facilities.[22]
Trump’s and Netanyahu’s boasts are somewhat larger than their capabilities. Netanyahu’s foray into Iran has not yielded the results he expected.[23] His promise of regime change must be dismissed as hubris. And the U.S. has not won a war of any significance since World War II (which was actually won by the Soviets). Iran is geographically larger and more populous than either Afghanistan or Iraq, which the U.S. floundered against. So it is impossible to believe that the U.S. can prevail in Iran. But it would seem these lessons are lost on U.S. and Israeli elites. We can only hope that Trump chickens out.
Update, June 19, 2025: It turns out that Donald Trump has a very good reason for chickening out of an attack on the Fordow nuclear facility: The facility is up to 300 feet deep, built into a mountain; the GBU-57 “bunker buster” bomb is 1) not proven under these conditions; and 2) only proven to 200 feet, meaning the site would need to be bombed prior to deploying the bunker buster. Further, the bomb requires a clear Global Positioning System (GPS) signal—any jammers would have to be taken out first.[24]
“It would not be a one and done. . . . It might set the program back six months to a year. It sounds good for TV but it’s not real.”[25] The facility, it seems, could be quickly rebuilt.[26]
Trump has said, somewhat ominously, that he’s looking for “a real end” to Iran’s nuclear enrichment program.[27] Bombing Fordow doesn’t sound like it.
In the event, Trump has now given himself two weeks to decide what to do. A post on Cable News Network’s “Meanwhile in America” list, noting at length a history of U.S. folly in attempts to manage Iran, asks, “Did Trump just blink? And is it because he is loath to start a new war, or because he just doesn’t know what to do?”[28]
Update, June 21, 2025: I will leave to others the inevitable armchair psychoanalysis that will surely accompany news that U.S. forces have bombed three nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow. The Associated Press reports that “[t]he strikes are a perilous decision for the U.S. as Iran has pledged to retaliate if it joined the Israeli assault, and for [Donald] Trump personally, having won the White House on the promise of keeping America out of costly foreign conflicts and scoffed at the value of American interventionism.
“Trump told reporters on Friday that he was not interested in sending ground forces into Iran. He had previously indicated that he would make a final choice over the course of two weeks, a timeline that seemed drawn out as the situation was evolving quickly.”[29]
The move risks a wider conflagration in the Middle East[30] which the U.S. cannot win and is unlikely to impact Iran’s nuclear program in any enduring way.[31] That makes it textbook stupid.
Update, June 22, 2025: We don’t know yet the effects of the U.S. bombing mission into Iran. The Donald Trump administration and allied Republicans have been bullish, while insisting this is not about regime change—that’s Binyamin Netanyahu’s idea, supposedly not the U.S. plan.[32] But, and of course there’s always a but with Trump: “It’s not politically correct to use the term, ‘Regime Change,’ but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!”[33]
The question, of course, is how Iran responds. Julia Ioffe argues that Netanyahu’s assaults on Hamas and Hezbollah, combined with the collapse of the Syrian regime, created the opportunity for Trump to launch his bombing run.[34] A “longtime GOP national security official with ties to some of the party’s more hawkish figures suggested that Iran’s military options are ‘severely degraded’ and that escalation should concern Tehran far more than it would the White House.
“‘The idea should terrify Khamenei,’ said the official, who was granted anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly. But if Iran were to retaliate, Trump, as he first teased in his remarks from the White House Saturday evening, could go further.”[35]
But, of course, “Iran has already vowed to retaliate.”[36] One possibility (there are others) that ‘longtime GOP national security official’ seems not to have considered is of cyberattacks,[37] which have mostly been off my radar since I gave up running my own servers a few years ago, but which I understand can be devastating: “An Iranian national pleaded guilty last month to helping orchestrate the 2019 Baltimore, Maryland, ransomware attack that caused tens of millions of dollars in damage and disrupted critical city services. While prosecutors did not allege Sina Gholinejad was directed in his activities by the Iranian government, in announcing the case they warned more broadly of Iranian government-backed hacking groups targeting U.S. critical infrastructure.”[38]
“[Iran’s] Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday that the U.S. ‘crossed a very big red line’ and that it was not the time for diplomacy.”[39] Trump has warned that “any retaliation by Iran against the US will be met with far greater than what was witnessed tonight.”[40]
If you don’t want war, you don’t make existential threats against your enemy’s government. And indeed, this had been the intent behind the insistence that this was not about regime change, as “[o]fficials want to convince Tehran to keep its response limited, and mollify the factions of the MAGA base that didn’t want the U.S. to launch the strikes.”[41] But Trump has gone off message and made just that threat.
Update, June 23, 2025: Satellite imagery seemed to offer reason for doubt as to the efficacy of the U.S. strikes on nuclear sites in Iran: Damage to the Fordow facility remains unclear but it is likely the Iranians removed the enriched uranium from the site prior to the U.S. strikes. It is likely the Iranians removed some machinery from the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center prior to the U.S. strikes. The part of the Natanz enrichment facility that is used to manufacture centrifuges may have escaped damage. In general, it appears that while there certainly was damage to all three sites, the Iranians anticipated the strikes and prepared for them,[42] which will have limited the strikes’ impact, which is about as predicted,[43] but it still remains to be seen to what degree.
Iran has “launched a missile attack on US bases in the Gulf state and Iraq,” which a U.S. defense official dismissed as “‘a retaliatory but largely symbolic response’ to the weekend US strikes” on Iranian nuclear sites.[44]
“Trump later dismissed the attack as a ‘very weak response’ but in a post on his own online platform, Truth Social, he went on to thank Iran for warning of the impending attack, saying: ‘Most importantly, they’ve gotten it all out of their “system,” and there will, hopefully, be no further HATE… Perhaps Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same.’”[45]
Subsequently, according to the Guardian, “Donald Trump has claimed that Israel and Iran have negotiated a ceasefire, halting a two-week-old war that has killed hundreds in tit-for-tat strikes by Israeli warplanes and Iranian ballistic missiles.”[46] We can only hope that this ceasefire is not so ill-fated as those negotiated between Israel and Hamas.
Update, June 24-25, 2025: Oops: “Neither Israel nor Iran immediately confirmed [Donald] Trump’s announcement that they had agreed to a ceasefire. . . . Earlier on Monday [June 23], Israel launched another round of airstrikes on Iran targeting the country’s north and areas surrounding the nation’s capital of Tehran. And an hour before the ceasefire was announced, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wrote on X that ‘those who know the Iranian people and their history know that the Iranian nation isn’t a nation that surrenders.’”[47]
The best that can be said is that the ceasefire was off to a rocky start, even if it—for the moment at least—seems to be holding.[48] Both Iran and Israel eventually acknowledged it, but, at least in Trump’s view, proceeded to violate it—the already and continually raging narcissist-in-chief is the sort of bear that neither country should wish to poke. He “appeared to express more frustration with Israel, suggesting that their response to the Iranian missile was disproportionate.”[49]
The Israeli defense minister said he had “instructed the IDF to respond forcefully to Iran’s violation of the ceasefire with powerful strikes against regime targets in the heart of Tehran. In light of Iran’s complete violation of the ceasefire declared by the US president and the launch of missiles towards Israel … I have instructed the IDF … to continue the intense activity of attacking Tehran to thwart regime targets and terrorist infrastructures in Tehran, in continuation of the activity that took place yesterday.”[50] Israel’s “hardline finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, posted a message on the social media platform X vowing a response, warning: ‘Tehran will tremble.’”[51]
The extent of damage to Iran’s nuclear program remains unknown.[52] A report has emerged of an initial Defense Intelligence Agency assessment that “[t]he US military strikes on three of Iran’s nuclear facilities last weekend did not destroy the core components of the country’s nuclear program and likely only set it back by months.”[53] The report also confirmed “that much of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium that could be put to use for a possible nuclear weapon was moved before the strikes and may have been moved to other secret nuclear sites maintained by Iran.”[54] U.S. intelligence (an oxymoron) agencies also believe that Iran has secret facilities which were not attacked. An Israeli assessment found that less damage than expected had been done to Fordow but argues the setback is two years—unchanged from following Israeli strikes and prior to the U.S. strikes.[55]
And “[w]hile the DIA report was only an initial assessment, one of the people said if the intelligence on the ground was already finding within days that Fordow in particular was not destroyed, later assessments could suggest even less damage might have been inflicted.”[56]
To the extent there is a ceasefire, the sense I was initially getting from mostly Western coverage is that, Khamenei’s words notwithstanding, it is Iran who cried ‘Uncle.’ More likely, they’re pretending to cry ‘Uncle.’ And it seems hard to argue that Israel’s acquiescence to the ceasefire is anything more than half-hearted—they wanted the U.S. strikes, Trump gave them to them, and now they think they have to accept the transactional Trump’s deal.
In addition, a huge caveat in all of this: By itself, a ceasefire solves nothing. It only means Iran and Israel have stopped shooting at each other. The issues underlying their animosity, including Iran’s nuclear program, including Israel’s treatment of Palestinians, remain and it is hard to imagine Trump being the one to resolve them. And, of course, Binyamin Netanyahu still has his domestic imperatives.
It is starting, only starting, to appear that the U.S. strikes were, in a longer view, mostly bluster. This episode seems nearly certain to underscore the discrepancy between white Christian nationalist rhetoric and observable reality.
Update, June 26, 2025: The White House is pushing back on reports downplaying the efficacy of the bombing raids on Iran’s nuclear program, including with a press release from the Central Intelligence Agency. But it is also seeking to avoid sharing intelligence with Congress.[57]
I don’t know what Donald Trump’s longer game is, if he even has one. But I also doubt that the truth of this can long be hidden. The International Atomic Energy Agency will conduct its own assessments and outside experts will be examining satellite imagery.
What this looks to me like is Trump declaring “victory” from bomb craters that don’t reveal any actual damage to underground facilities. It looks to me like Trump is declaring “victory” where in fact he has none, hoping to put the issue behind him, without ever addressing the real problems. Such a victory is pyrrhic.
Update, June 27, 2025: The Donald Trump administration rejecting a Defense Intelligence Agency report because it doesn’t fit their preferred narrative is one thing. But now I’m starting to see something else.
First, Julia Ioffe writes that “the leaked assessment was ‘based on “one day’s intelligence reporting.”’ And one day, at least according to everyone I’ve spoken with in the [Intelligence Community], is far too little time to learn anything conclusive. In fact, even the D.I.A. assessment itself, delivered with low confidence and not in coordination with other intelligence agencies, noted that the battle damage assessment (B.D.A.) would take ‘days to weeks,’ which is pretty standard.
“For intelligence community insiders, it’s been somewhat funny to watch everyone latch on to an analysis from the D.I.A. as if it were gospel—apparently unaware that the agency is the butt of jokes in the I.C. and the national security world of Washington. They have traditionally been seen as the knuckle-draggers who don’t have access to the same sources of information as the other agencies—though that has been changing.”[58]
So, okay, that’s certainly sprinkling salt over one’s left shoulder. Now, the British Broadcasting Corporation is reporting that “Iran's foreign minister [Abbas Aragchi] has admitted that ‘excessive and serious’ damage was done to the country's nuclear sites in the recent US and Israeli bombings.”[59] That’s still pretty vague, but it would seem the damage is not inconsequential. Apparently, Aragchi also said, in the BBC’s paraphrase, “that an assessment of the damage is being carried out by the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran.”[60] Which would seem to suggest that not even the Iranians yet know how bad the damage is.
Update, June 29, 2025: Round and round we go. The latest is a communication intercept allegedly between Iranians saying the damage from Donald Trump’s bombing raid is not as severe as they had expected. Which still isn’t very specific even if it didn’t lack context that could be important. Trump remains upset with any coverage that doesn’t align with his preferred narrative of ‘total obliteration,’[61] which keeps me thinking he doth protest too much.
Indeed, “The UN nuclear watchdog chief has said Iran could produce enriched uranium ‘in a matter of months’, in an interview in which he also contradicted Donald Trump’s assertion that US strikes had “completely and totally obliterated” Tehran’s nuclear facilities.”[62]
[1] Murtaza Hussain, “Israel Attacks Iran, Promising Full-Scale Military Operation,” Drop Site, June 12, 2025, https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/israel-attacks-iran-promising-full-scale-military-operation
[2] Murtaza Hussain, “Israel and Israel Alone Kicked Off This Escalation — In a Bid to Drag U.S. Into War With Iran,” Intercept, April 14, 2024, https://theintercept.com/2024/04/14/israel-iran-drag-us-war-netanyahu-biden/
[3] Murtaza Hussain, “Israel Attacks Iran, Promising Full-Scale Military Operation,” Drop Site, June 12, 2025, https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/israel-attacks-iran-promising-full-scale-military-operation
[4] Marco Rubio, quoted in Murtaza Hussain, “Israel Attacks Iran, Promising Full-Scale Military Operation,” Drop Site, June 12, 2025, https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/israel-attacks-iran-promising-full-scale-military-operation
[5] Ishaan Tharoor, “What Orwell thought of military parades,” Washington Post, June 13, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2025/06/13/army-parade-trump-washington-orwell/
[6] David Benfell, “War in Southern California neighborhoods,” Not Housebroken, June 13, 2025, https://www.disunitedstates.org/p/war-in-southern-california-neighborhoods
[7] Jeremy Sharon, “High Court rules Shin Bet head’s dismissal ‘unlawful’, PM had ‘conflict of interest,’” Times of Israel, May 21, 2025, https://www.timesofisrael.com/high-court-rules-shin-bet-heads-dismissal-unlawful-pm-had-conflict-of-interest/
[8] Sam Sokol and Stuart Winer, “After compromise, Haredi parties back off threat to dissolve Knesset and trigger elections,” Times of Israel, June 12, 2025, https://www.timesofisrael.com/after-compromise-haredi-parties-back-off-threat-to-disperse-knesset-trigger-elections/
[9] Jacob Knutson, “Trump’s Stunning Streak of Losses in Lower Courts,” Democracy Docket, May 29, 2025, https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/trump-lower-court-streak-legal-losses/
[10] Lisa Baumann, “What to know about ‘No Kings’ protests against Trump’s policies,” Associated Press, June 12, 2025, https://apnews.com/article/no-kings-protest-things-to-know-trump-8d37f2bb2bf20ab503205b277e92b885; Stephen Collinson, Caitlin Hu, and Shelby Rose to Meanwhile in America list, “Trump's banana republic,” Cable News Network, June 13, 2025, https://www.cnn.com/newsletters/meanwhile-in-america
[11] Brett Bachman, “Trump Promises ‘PEACE’ But Says ‘It’s Possible’ U.S. Gets Involved in Iran,” News of the United States, June 15, 2025, https://www.notus.org/trump-white-house/trump-promises-peace-but-says-its-possible-u-s-gets-involved-in-iran
[12] Emanuel Fabian, “8 killed, nearly 300 injured as Iranian ballistic missiles strike central Israel, Haifa,” Times of Israel, June 16, 2025, https://www.timesofisrael.com/8-killed-nearly-300-injured-as-iranian-ballistic-missiles-strike-central-israel-haifa/
[13] Yves Smith [Susan Webber], “Does TACO Have Predictive Value? Pressures on Trump With Respect to Joining Israel in its Iran War,” Naked Capitalism, June 16, 2025, https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/06/does-taco-have-predictive-value-pressures-on-trump-with-respect-to-joining-israel-in-its-iran-war.html
[14] Dan Lamothe and Abigail Hauslohner, “Pentagon expands Middle East response as Israel, Iran trade strikes,” Washington Post, June 16, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/06/16/us-military-israel-iran/
[15] Dan Lamothe and Abigail Hauslohner, “Pentagon expands Middle East response as Israel, Iran trade strikes,” Washington Post, June 16, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/06/16/us-military-israel-iran/
[16] Dan Lamothe and Abigail Hauslohner, “Pentagon expands Middle East response as Israel, Iran trade strikes,” Washington Post, June 16, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/06/16/us-military-israel-iran/
[17] Moira Donegan, “Trump’s parade isn’t what he was hoping for. It was a disappointing, sad affair,” Guardian, June 16, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/16/trump-military-parade; Philip Kennicott, “Trump wanted a military spectacle. Instead, he got a history lesson,” Washington Post, June 15, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/entertainment/2025/06/15/trump-army-parade-washington/
[18] Holly Otterbein, “Steve Bannon has some thoughts,” Politico, June 18, 2025, https://www.politico.com/newsletters/west-wing-playbook-remaking-government/2025/06/18/steve-bannon-has-some-thoughts-00413484
[19] Yves Smith [Susan Webber], “Does TACO Have Predictive Value? Pressures on Trump With Respect to Joining Israel in its Iran War,” Naked Capitalism, June 16, 2025, https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/06/does-taco-have-predictive-value-pressures-on-trump-with-respect-to-joining-israel-in-its-iran-war.html
[20] Jack Blanchard and Dasha Burns, “Trump’s moment of truth,” Politico, June 17, 2025, https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2025/06/17/trumps-moment-of-truth-00409814; Julian Borger, Patrick Wintour and Peter Walker, “Israel-Iran conflict at critical juncture as Trump demands Tehran’s ‘unconditional surrender,’” Guardian, June 17, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/17/middle-east-conflict-reaches-crucial-moment-as-trump-demands-real-end-to-iran-nuclear-programme; Calder McHugh, “The impossible politics of bombing Iran,” Politico, June 17, 2025, https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-nightly/2025/06/17/the-impossible-politics-of-bombing-iran-00411557; Yves Smith [Susan Webber], “Does TACO Have Predictive Value? Pressures on Trump With Respect to Joining Israel in its Iran War,” Naked Capitalism, June 16, 2025, https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/06/does-taco-have-predictive-value-pressures-on-trump-with-respect-to-joining-israel-in-its-iran-war.html; Ishaan Tharoor, “With Trump on side, Israel becomes the Middle East’s clear hegemon,” Washington Post, June 18, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2025/06/18/trump-israel-iran-war-missiles/
[21] Katie Bo Lillis and Zachary Cohen, “Israel says Iran was racing toward a nuclear weapon. US intel says it was years away,” Cable News Network, June 17, 2025, https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/17/politics/israel-iran-nuclear-bomb-us-intelligence-years-away
[22] Murtaza Hussain and Mahmoud Shaban, “There Is No Such Thing as a Quick U.S. War on Iran,” Drop Site, June 18, 2025, https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/donald-trump-united-states-military-iran
[23] Yves Smith [Susan Webber], “Does TACO Have Predictive Value? Pressures on Trump With Respect to Joining Israel in its Iran War,” Naked Capitalism, June 16, 2025, https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/06/does-taco-have-predictive-value-pressures-on-trump-with-respect-to-joining-israel-in-its-iran-war.html
[24] Hugo Lowell, “Trump caution on Iran strike linked to doubts over ‘bunker buster’ bomb, officials say,” Guardian, June 18, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/19/trump-caution-on-iran-strike-linked-to-doubts-over-bunker-buster-bomb-officials-say
[25] Randy Manner, quoted in Hugo Lowell, “Trump caution on Iran strike linked to doubts over ‘bunker buster’ bomb, officials say,” Guardian, June 18, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/19/trump-caution-on-iran-strike-linked-to-doubts-over-bunker-buster-bomb-officials-say
[26] Hugo Lowell, “Trump caution on Iran strike linked to doubts over ‘bunker buster’ bomb, officials say,” Guardian, June 18, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/19/trump-caution-on-iran-strike-linked-to-doubts-over-bunker-buster-bomb-officials-say
[27] Jennifer Jacobs et al., “Trump says he wants "real end" to Iran's nuclear program, not just an Iran-Israel ceasefire,” CBS News, June 17, 2025, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-real-end-iran-nuclear-program/
[28] Stephen Collinson and Caitlin Hu to Meanwhile in America list, “Trump's historic dilemma,” Cable News Network, June 20, 2025, https://view.newsletters.cnn.com/messages/17503814009815c65293c24de/raw
[29] Aamer Madhani, David Rising, and Sam Mednick, “US has struck 3 Iranian nuclear sites, Trump says, joining Israeli air campaign,”
[30] Aamer Madhani, David Rising, and Sam Mednick, “US has struck 3 Iranian nuclear sites, Trump says, joining Israeli air campaign,”
[31] Hugo Lowell, “Trump caution on Iran strike linked to doubts over ‘bunker buster’ bomb, officials say,” Guardian, June 18, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/19/trump-caution-on-iran-strike-linked-to-doubts-over-bunker-buster-bomb-officials-say
[32] Felicia Schwartz and Amy MacKinnon, “Trump floats regime change in Iran, muddying the administration’s message,” Politico, June 22, 2025, https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/22/trump-administration-says-it-doesnt-want-regime-change-and-admits-it-may-happen-00417738; Phil Stewart and Idrees Ali, “US warns against Iran retaliation as Trump raises ‘regime change,’” Reuters, June 23, 2025, https://apple.news/AO9tkfympS6iQrGqYJ-iXuA
[33] Donald Trump, quoted in Felicia Schwartz and Amy MacKinnon, “Trump floats regime change in Iran, muddying the administration’s message,” Politico, June 22, 2025, https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/22/trump-administration-says-it-doesnt-want-regime-change-and-admits-it-may-happen-00417738
[34] Leigh Ann Caldwell and Julia Ioffe, “Trump’s Iran Warpath & D.C. Aftershocks,” Puck, June 22, 2025, https://puck.news/why-did-trump-decide-to-strike-iran-now/
[35] Felicia Schwartz and Amy MacKinnon, “Trump floats regime change in Iran, muddying the administration’s message,” Politico, June 22, 2025, https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/22/trump-administration-says-it-doesnt-want-regime-change-and-admits-it-may-happen-00417738
[36] Donald Trump, quoted in Jacob Magid, “Trump warns against ‘ANY RETALIATION’ by Iran,” Times of Israel, June 22, 2025, https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/trump-warns-against-any-retaliation-by-iran/
[37] Pierre Thomas and Josh Margolin, “After Trump attacks Iran, what experts and officials fear for the American homeland,” ABC News, June 22, 2025, https://abcnews.go.com/US/after-trump-attacks-iran-experts-officials-fear-american/story?id=123088227
[38] Pierre Thomas and Josh Margolin, “After Trump attacks Iran, what experts and officials fear for the American homeland,” ABC News, June 22, 2025, https://abcnews.go.com/US/after-trump-attacks-iran-experts-officials-fear-american/story?id=123088227
[39] Felicia Schwartz and Amy MacKinnon, “Trump floats regime change in Iran, muddying the administration’s message,” Politico, June 22, 2025, https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/22/trump-administration-says-it-doesnt-want-regime-change-and-admits-it-may-happen-00417738
[40] Donald Trump, quoted in Jacob Magid, “Trump warns against ‘ANY RETALIATION’ by Iran,” Times of Israel, June 22, 2025, https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/trump-warns-against-any-retaliation-by-iran/
[41] Felicia Schwartz and Amy MacKinnon, “Trump floats regime change in Iran, muddying the administration’s message,” Politico, June 22, 2025, https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/22/trump-administration-says-it-doesnt-want-regime-change-and-admits-it-may-happen-00417738
[42] Meg Kelly et al., “What satellite images reveal about damage to Iran’s nuclear sites,” Washington Post, June 23, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2025/06/22/iran-strikes-nuclear-site-damage-visuals/
[43] Hugo Lowell, “Trump caution on Iran strike linked to doubts over ‘bunker buster’ bomb, officials say,” Guardian, June 18, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/19/trump-caution-on-iran-strike-linked-to-doubts-over-bunker-buster-bomb-officials-say
[44] Julian Borger and Hugo Lowell, “Iran launches missiles at US base in Qatar in retaliation for bombing of nuclear sites,” Guardian, June 23, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/23/iran-launches-missiles-at-us-base-in-qatar-in-retaliation-for-bombing-of-nuclear-sites
[45] Julian Borger and Hugo Lowell, “Iran launches missiles at US base in Qatar in retaliation for bombing of nuclear sites,” Guardian, June 23, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/23/iran-launches-missiles-at-us-base-in-qatar-in-retaliation-for-bombing-of-nuclear-sites
[46] Julian Borger et al., “Israel and Iran continue to exchange fire despite Trump’s ceasefire declaration,” Guardian, June 24, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/23/trump-israel-iran-ceasefire
[47] Megan Messerly, Eli Stokols, and Eric Bazail-Eimil, “Trump announces Israel-Iran ceasefire,” Politico, June 23, 2025, https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/23/israel-iran-ceasefire-trump-00419364
[48] Julian Borger, Hugo Lowell, and Andrew Roth, “Fragile Israel-Iran truce appears to hold after Trump’s fury at initial violations,” Guardian, June 24, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/24/trump-israel-iran-ceasefire-netanyahu
[49] Hadriana Lowenkron, “Trump Tells Israel to Stop Dropping Bombs to Save Iran Truce,” Bloomberg, June 24, 2025, https://apple.news/A4FlU9mueQ7mQfwHIc_qTwg
[50] Israel Katz, quoted in Julian Borger et al., “Israel and Iran continue to exchange fire despite Trump’s ceasefire declaration,” Guardian, June 24, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/23/trump-israel-iran-ceasefire
[51] Julian Borger and Hugo Lowell, “Iran launches missiles at US base in Qatar in retaliation for bombing of nuclear sites,” Guardian, June 23, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/23/iran-launches-missiles-at-us-base-in-qatar-in-retaliation-for-bombing-of-nuclear-sites
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[53] Natasha Bertrand, Katie Bo Lillis, and Zachary Cohen, “Early US intel assessment suggests strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear sites, sources say,” Cable News Network, June 25, 2025, https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/24/politics/intel-assessment-us-strikes-iran-nuclear-sites
[54] Hugo Lowell, “US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites only set back program by months, Pentagon report says,” Guardian, June 24, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/24/iran-strikes-nuclear-sites-report
[55] Natasha Bertrand, Katie Bo Lillis, and Zachary Cohen, “Early US intel assessment suggests strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear sites, sources say,” Cable News Network, June 25, 2025, https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/24/politics/intel-assessment-us-strikes-iran-nuclear-sites
[56] Hugo Lowell, “US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites only set back program by months, Pentagon report says,” Guardian, June 24, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/24/iran-strikes-nuclear-sites-report
[57] Guardian, “Trump officials cite ‘new intelligence’ to back president’s claims of success in strikes on Iran,” June 25, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/26/iran-nuclear-facility-damage-assessment-new-intelligence-trump-claim
[58] Julia Ioffe, “The Truth About Obliterategate,” Puck, June 26, 2025, https://puck.news/were-irans-nuclear-facilities-really-obliterated/
[59] Danai Nesta Kupemba, “Iranian foreign minister admits serious damage to nuclear sites,” British Broadcasting Corporation, June 27, 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crmv3kp744ro
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[61] John Hudson and Warren P. Strobel, “Intercepted call of Iranian officials downplays damage of U.S. attack,” Washington Post, June 29, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/06/29/trump-iran-nuclear-damage-intercepted-call/
[62] Patrick Wintour and Ashifa Kassam, “Iran will probably be able to produce enriched uranium in ‘matter of months’, IAEA chief says,” Guardian, June 29, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/29/iran-will-likely-be-able-to-produce-enriched-uranium-in-a-matter-of-months-iaea-chief-says