The games Binyamin Netanyahu plays
Donald Trump has 'other fish to fry' but Netanyahu has a coalition to preserve
See update for January 16, 2025, at end of post.
Under apparent pressure from Donald Trump and despite the risks to Binyamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition, Israel and Hamas have almost—Netanyahu is reprising his pattern of reneging on what’s already been announced—reached a ceasefire agreement[1] pausing the genocide in Gaza.
Haviv Rettig Gur speculates that Binyamin Netanyahu’s deal with Trump is that “Israel can do what it takes to win, but Trump, it appears, wants it to show it is willing to try a ceasefire, publicly and clearly. When Hamas inevitably tries to rearm or launch a rocket, Israel will have its excuse to return to fighting, perhaps better prepared and with better intelligence penetration of the Hamas ranks than on October 8, 2023.
“And in the meantime, it will have handed Trump his political win in the form of a ceasefire, and won his backing for a more intensive fight against Hamas.”[2]
I see three questions about this hypothesis: First, Netanyahu will still sustain damage to his coalition, as hard right-wing members of the government threaten to withdraw despite Gur’s inferred agreement with Trump, that imperils his ability to remain in power even during the first phase of this agreement, let alone during the presumably fraught negotiations on the second phase.[3] Why do those hard right-wing members of Netanyahu’s coalition fail to see the apparent advantage?
Second, the world will still understand that Israel has been committing genocide; a ceasefire now does not change the fact that Israel committed this crime. Israel has committed this crime with little regard for the public relations implications that Trump considers important.[4] A mere pause in the genocide—which is what Gur suggests is the expectation behind this deal—does not change that it is genocide and it ultimately does not change the public relations problem that is inherent to genocide.
Third, it is hard to see how Joe Biden, who has been willing to empty the U.S. Treasury and supply unlimited arms to Israel in support of this genocide, has been restraining the Zionists in any way, but Gur supposes that somehow Israel can launch an even more intensive assault with U.S. support when, as Gur presumes, Hamas breaks the ceasefire.[5] What more can Netanyahu possibly expect Trump to do? Send in the U.S. military? What would that do to U.S. relations with the rest of the Middle East? Importantly including Saudi Arabia?[6]
Gur has clearly not thought this through. And his hypothesis requires a significantly higher level of intellect than I attribute to Trump. Peter Beaumont suggests rather that “[i]n what some Israeli media described as a ‘tense meeting’, [Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, Steven] Witkoff delivered his message. The president-elect was emphatic that he wanted a ceasefire-for-hostages deal. Trump wanted the war in Gaza finished. He had other fish to fry.”[7]
If Beaumont is correct, then Netanyahu seems to risk antagonizing Trump, whom he had already antagonized by congratulating Biden on his 2020 election victory,[8] further by spurning a resolution[9] to the genocide that Trump sees as a mere public relations problem.[10]
It’s likely that Netanyahu is indeed struggling to preserve his coalition. As Gur frames it, “Otzma Yehudit party leader Itamar Ben Gvir has already declared he will leave the government if the deal is signed. While he appears resolved to that outcome, Netanyahu has worked hard to keep the Religious Zionism chief, Finance Minister Betzalel Smotrich, from doing the same. On paper, Netanyahu’s coalition could survive without them for some time, but it would be a far less stable coalition, and a far less loyal one.”[11] But if he fails to satisfy Trump’s demand to end the war, he may find himself on the wrong side of Trump’s notoriously mercurial temper.
Update, January 16, 2025: Joe Biden and Donald Trump are both claiming credit[12] for a ceasefire agreement that Binyamin Netanyahu will now put to a vote of his government later on Friday (January 17).[13] However much it may resemble an agreement proposed months ago, the simple fact is that the Biden administration failed—and can hardly be said to have actually tried—to push the deal over the line. The deal was made when Trump applied pressure on Netanyahu,[14] something Biden steadfastly refused to do.
[1] Peter Beaumont, “‘A stern message’: how return of Trump loomed over Gaza ceasefire negotiations,” Guardian, January 15, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jan/15/a-stern-message-how-return-of-trump-loomed-over-gaza-ceasefire-negotiations; Ilan Goldenberg, “A Gaza Ceasefire and Hostage Deal,” Contrarian, January 15, 2025, https://contrarian.substack.com/p/a-gaza-ceasefire-and-hostage-deal; Tia Goldenberg, Wafaa Shurafa, and Samy Magdy, “Netanyahu says ‘last-minute crisis’ with Hamas holding up approval of Gaza truce and hostage deal,” Associated Press, January 16, 2025, https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-news-ceasefire-hostages-01-16-2024-dc0ef64dd52db395c5a54328518e8efd
[2] Haviv Rettig Gur, “With hostage deal, Netanyahu is going all in on Trump,” Times of Israel, January 16, 2025, https://www.timesofisrael.com/with-hostage-deal-netanyahu-is-going-all-in-on-trump/
[3] Haviv Rettig Gur, “With hostage deal, Netanyahu is going all in on Trump,” Times of Israel, January 16, 2025, https://www.timesofisrael.com/with-hostage-deal-netanyahu-is-going-all-in-on-trump/
[4] Jill Colvin, “Trump says Israel has to get war in Gaza over ‘fast’ and warns it is ‘losing the PR war,’” Associated Press, April 4, 2024, https://apnews.com/article/trump-biden-israel-pr-hugh-hewitt-21faee332d95fec99652c112fbdcd35d
[5] Haviv Rettig Gur, “With hostage deal, Netanyahu is going all in on Trump,” Times of Israel, January 16, 2025, https://www.timesofisrael.com/with-hostage-deal-netanyahu-is-going-all-in-on-trump/
[6] Paul Webster Hare, “How Trump’s Relationships with Saudi Arabia and Elon Musk Will Shape Foreign Policy,” Boston University Today, November 22, 2024, https://www.bu.edu/articles/2024/trumps-relationships-saudi-arabia-elon-musk-foreign-policy/
[7] Peter Beaumont, “‘A stern message’: how return of Trump loomed over Gaza ceasefire negotiations,” Guardian, January 15, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jan/15/a-stern-message-how-return-of-trump-loomed-over-gaza-ceasefire-negotiations
[8] National Public Radio, “Trump slams Israel's Netanyahu for congratulating Biden,” December 10, 2021, https://www.npr.org/2021/12/10/1062944477/trump-slams-israels-netanyahu-for-congratulating-biden
[9] Peter Beaumont, “‘A stern message’: how return of Trump loomed over Gaza ceasefire negotiations,” Guardian, January 15, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jan/15/a-stern-message-how-return-of-trump-loomed-over-gaza-ceasefire-negotiations; Ilan Goldenberg, “A Gaza Ceasefire and Hostage Deal,” Contrarian, January 15, 2025, https://contrarian.substack.com/p/a-gaza-ceasefire-and-hostage-deal; Tia Goldenberg, Wafaa Shurafa, and Samy Magdy, “Netanyahu says ‘last-minute crisis’ with Hamas holding up approval of Gaza truce and hostage deal,” Associated Press, January 16, 2025, https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-news-ceasefire-hostages-01-16-2024-dc0ef64dd52db395c5a54328518e8efd
[10] Jill Colvin, “Trump says Israel has to get war in Gaza over ‘fast’ and warns it is ‘losing the PR war,’” Associated Press, April 4, 2024, https://apnews.com/article/trump-biden-israel-pr-hugh-hewitt-21faee332d95fec99652c112fbdcd35d
[11] Haviv Rettig Gur, “With hostage deal, Netanyahu is going all in on Trump,” Times of Israel, January 16, 2025, https://www.timesofisrael.com/with-hostage-deal-netanyahu-is-going-all-in-on-trump/
[12] Matthew Lee, Aamer Madhani, and Ellen Knickmeyer, “Trump and Biden both claim credit for Gaza ceasefire deal,” Associated Press, January 16, 2025, https://apnews.com/article/gaza-ceasefire-trump-biden-israel-hamas-0e6c324ba0e3e9413bafe740fdefebc6
[13] British Broadcasting Corporation, “Netanyahu's office says hostage deal now agreed,” January 17, 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwypppw9jrko
[14] Matthew Lee, Aamer Madhani, and Ellen Knickmeyer, “Trump and Biden both claim credit for Gaza ceasefire deal,” Associated Press, January 16, 2025, https://apnews.com/article/gaza-ceasefire-trump-biden-israel-hamas-0e6c324ba0e3e9413bafe740fdefebc6