See updates through January 8, 2025, at end of post.
A reported possible coup d’etat attempt against Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad[1] seems never to have materialized, but his regime has fallen nonetheless as Syrian rebels, who launched a lightning attack on November 27,[2] have taken Damascus, Assad has reportedly left the country, and his prime minister has offered to cooperate with the rebels.[3] Tankies, who worship anyone who opposes the U.S. or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, are out in force repeating and decrying an Iranian allegation of U.S. and Israeli involvement (likely true, but the U.S. denied it) in the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham advance. The U.S. lists Hayat Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist group[4] but this would seem unlikely to have dissuaded Binyamin Netanyahu, who is well known to have supported Hamas to keep the Palestinian movement divided.[5]
Those who hail Assad as a great hero resisting the evil U.S. disregard that Assad has used poison gas on his own people on numerous occasions.[6] Whether or not the U.S or Israel are involved, he is no loss and my disgust for tankies only increases.
More significantly, this is a dramatic change in the situation in the Middle East. Assad’s problems flowed from the inability of his allies to support him,[7] but we can expect that the ramifications will also flow outwards from Syria.
Ishaan Tharoor has noted, “The current developments are connected to conflicts raging elsewhere. The Kremlin’s capacity to protect Assad has probably been limited by its costly invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, whose ground forces turned the tide of the Syrian civil war in Assad’s favor, has been hammered by Israel. Over the past year, Israel has pummeled targets across Syria linked to Hezbollah and Assad’s Iranian allies. The scale of that bombardment led a U.N. official in October to warn about ‘a military, humanitarian and economic storm breaking on an already devastated Syria’ that would pose ‘dangerous and unpredictable consequences.’
“Then came [the] cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah, a détente that appears to have given groups such as [Hayat Tahrir al-Sham] and a coalition of militias supported by Turkey the impetus to press their advantage against an enfeebled regime. ‘It’s a tectonic shift,’ Andrew Tabler, who served as Syria director in the [Donald] Trump White House, told the Wall Street Journal. ‘Regional and international powers intervened in Syria over a decade ago, and now the conflicts of Ukraine, Gaza and Lebanon all come together and overlap in Aleppo.’”[8]
The word ‘stunning’ appears a lot in the reporting I’ve seen on all this. But if we accept Binyamin Netanyahu’s alleged involvement in all of this, we certainly see motive, and in the factors that Tharoor assembles,[9] opportunity: It is likely Netanyahu has succeeded in further severely undermining Hezbollah and further diminishing Iran’s power in the Middle East. As for Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has a long ways to go in any project to restore the Ottoman Empire,[10] but his proxies now have a somewhat wider reach, and the longstanding contest between Sunni Muslims and Shi’ite Muslims has now taken a significant turn in favor of Sunni Islam, benefiting Netanyahu, Erdoğan, and a host of Sunni leaders in the Middle East.
I do have to admit all this was not on my bingo card. It forces me to rethink my assumptions about the balance of power in the Middle East and how it affects events there and elsewhere. For now, I lack even a guess as to how this plays.
Update, December 11, 2024: It is unclear whether Israel intends its incursion into previously Syrian-held territory (claimed to be to secure Syrian weapons, but in addition to its illegal occupations of Gaza, the West Bank, and the Golan Heights; in addition to its incursion into Lebanon; and in addition to its attacks on Iran and the Houthi rebels in Yemen) to be temporary (in the English version) or indefinite (in the Hebrew version). But “[i]n an address Monday [December 9], [Binyamin] Netanyahu took credit for the collapse of the [Bashar al-]Assad regime, saying it was ‘a direct result of the blows’ Israeli forces had inflicted on Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah. ‘As I promised, we are reshaping the Middle East,’ he said.”[11]
Some will surely see this as part of a Zionist project for a ‘Greater Israel,’[12] but what’s clear is that this is one aspect of a greater scramble for Syrian territory, both among domestic factions in the Syrian Civil War and among outside powers.[13] Lost here, even as some others perceive an inherent frailty of ‘authoritarian’ regimes, is what the Syrian people themselves, indeed but not just the rebels who overthrew Assad, want.
Update, January 8, 2025: The conventional wisdom, following the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in Syria was that Turkey was a big winner, that its proxies would increase Turkish influence in Syria. Conor Gallagher now argues the contrary, that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is actually in a weak position due to the condition of the Turkish economy and susceptible to making a deal with the Kurds in Syria. It’s possible that deal still isn’t happening, but it appears Turkish influence in Syria is nonetheless waning.[14]
[1] Aure Free Press, “According to Arab sources, the head of Syrian intelligence, Brigadier General Hossam Louka, is attempting to organize a coup against Bashar al-Assad in Damascus. . . ,” Mastodon, November 30, 2024, https://infosec.exchange/deck/@Free_Press@mstdn.social/113573983968172042
[2] Suleiman Al-Khalidi, “Syrian rebels sweep into Aleppo, Russia conducts strikes in support of Assad,” Reuters, November 30, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/aleppo-airport-closed-sources-say-syrian-rebels-reach-heart-city-2024-11-29/; Bassem Mroue and Zeina Karam, “Syrian government falls in stunning end to 50-year rule of Assad family,” Associated Press, December 8, 2024, https://apnews.com/article/syria-assad-sweida-daraa-homs-hts-qatar-7f65823bbf0a7bd331109e8dff419430
[3] Bassem Mroue and Zeina Karam, “Syrian government falls in stunning end to 50-year rule of Assad family,” Associated Press, December 8, 2024, https://apnews.com/article/syria-assad-sweida-daraa-homs-hts-qatar-7f65823bbf0a7bd331109e8dff419430
[4] Suleiman Al-Khalidi, “Syrian rebels sweep into Aleppo, Russia conducts strikes in support of Assad,” Reuters, November 30, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/aleppo-airport-closed-sources-say-syrian-rebels-reach-heart-city-2024-11-29/
[5] Tal Schneider, “For years, Netanyahu propped up Hamas. Now it’s blown up in our faces,” Times of Israel, October 8, 2023, https://www.timesofisrael.com/for-years-netanyahu-propped-up-hamas-now-its-blown-up-in-our-faces/
[6] Kareem Chehayeb and Omar Albam, “A decade after a sarin gas attack in a Damascus suburb, Syrian survivors lose hope for justice,” Associated Press, August 21, 2023, https://apnews.com/article/syria-ghouta-chemical-attack-sarin-f3477f4a212a88e671634c10b9e17037
[7] Suleiman Al-Khalidi, “Syrian rebels sweep into Aleppo, Russia conducts strikes in support of Assad,” Reuters, November 30, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/aleppo-airport-closed-sources-say-syrian-rebels-reach-heart-city-2024-11-29/; Bassem Mroue and Zeina Karam, “Syrian government falls in stunning end to 50-year rule of Assad family,” Associated Press, December 8, 2024, https://apnews.com/article/syria-assad-sweida-daraa-homs-hts-qatar-7f65823bbf0a7bd331109e8dff419430
[8] Ishaan Tharoor, “In Syria, a sudden reminder of a war that never ended,” Washington Post, December 1, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/12/01/syria-sudden-reminder-war-that-never-ended/
[9] Ishaan Tharoor, “In Syria, a sudden reminder of a war that never ended,” Washington Post, December 1, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/12/01/syria-sudden-reminder-war-that-never-ended/
[10] Alan Mikhail, “Why Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Love Affair with the Ottoman Empire Should Worry The World,” Time, September 3, 2020, https://time.com/5885650/erdogans-ottoman-worry-world/
[11] Miriam Berger and Steve Hendrix, “Israeli troops move swiftly into Syrian territory after rebel takeover,” Washington Post, December 9, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/12/09/israel-syria-golan-heights-rebels-assad/
[12] Week, “What is the 'Greater Israel' movement?” October 18, 2024, https://theweek.com/world-news/what-is-the-greater-israel-movement
[13] Ishaan Tharoor, “Iran reels from ‘tectonic shift’ in Middle East amid scramble for Syria,” Washington Post, December 10, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2024/12/10/iran-syria-nuclear-weapons-israel-assad/
[14] Conor Gallagher, “Is a US-Türkiye Deal Involving the Kurds in the Works?” Naked Capitalism, January 8, 2025, https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/01/is-a-us-turkiye-deal-involving-the-kurds-in-the-works.html