Short-termism in war
Even if Donald Trump accomplishes his apparent aims, war on Iran will not bring justice
It very much appears that Donald Trump is about to launch a sustained military campaign against Iran.[1] This does not, by any means, come out of the blue. It would follow an attack last year at Israel’s behest that had dubious results[2] and it would follow decades of occasional U.S. saber-rattling.
I have been consistently skeptical of such a campaign as now appears likely because Iran is a larger country than either Afghanistan or Iraq and the U.S. wars in those countries were both failures. It is unclear what Trump really wants: His demands are about nuclear enrichment[3] but he also seems to seek regime change.[4]
Regime change is a worthy goal, but any attempt by the U.S. to impose it would surely feed into a “Great Satan” narrative that accompanied the Iranian Revolution in 1979. As Scott Anderson described people he knows in Iran in an interview on National Public Radio, “Most of them, frankly, are not fans of the regime. But what they've all said is that the bombings gave the regime just a new lease on life. It's produced this rallying around the flag effect inside Iran. You know, as a general rule, people don't like being bombed by foreign armies. And they feel the idea of this regime getting toppled or reformed in a significant way has just been pushed off a lot by the actions of the Israelis and the Americans at this point.”[5]
It is also unclear who would succeed the current regime[6] and whether they would be any more amenable to Trump’s demands to give up nuclear enrichment.
We have to consider the context. Iran, which apparently sees nuclear enrichment both as a means of projecting strength and as a bargaining chip for easing sanctions,[7] has been a supporter of Hamas and Hezbollah, groups that Israel has weakened but not eliminated since it began its genocide in Gaza, and there is no shortage of sympathy among ordinary people in the Middle East outside of Israel for the Palestinian cause. Israel’s military accomplishments have not been accompanied by justice and so it is unlikely that any future Iranian government can be less supportive of that cause. Even if it was less supportive, that could only engender a popular conflagration: Israel will not be safer.
Even if Trump accomplishes his goals of destroying Iran’s nuclear program and of regime change in the country, these successes will likely be short term. War is not an answer here.
But it will bolster the toxic masculinity among Trump’s white Christian nationalist base.
[1] Dan Rather, “We’re On the Brink of War,” Steady, February 19, 2026, https://steady.substack.com/p/were-on-the-brink-of-war; Barak Ravid, “Trump moves closer to a major war with Iran,” Axios, February 18, 2026, https://www.axios.com/2026/02/18/iran-war-trump-military-strikes-nuclear-talks
[2] Murtaza Hussain, “Iran Likely to Have Moved Nuclear Components Ahead of Fordow Attack: Iranian Nuclear Scientist,” Drop Site, July 1, 2025, https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/iran-nuclear-program-united-states-attacks-israel
[3] Lyse Doucet and Jeremy Culley, “Iran ready to discuss compromises to reach nuclear deal, minister tells BBC in Tehran,” British Broadcasting Corporation, February 15, 2026, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyz4y3zwz5o
[4] Drop Site, “U.S. Military Tells Key Middle East Ally to Prepare for Attack on Iran,” January 30, 2026, https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/united-states-iran-imminent-attack-strikes-trump-israel
[5] Dave Davies, “From allies to enemies: How the 1979 revolution transformed U.S.-Iranian relations,” National Public Radio, August 4, 2025, https://www.npr.org/2025/08/04/nx-s1-5489730/from-allies-to-enemies-how-the-1979-revolution-transformed-u-s-iranian-relations
[6] Dan Rather, “We’re On the Brink of War,” Steady, February 19, 2026, https://steady.substack.com/p/were-on-the-brink-of-war
[7] Lyse Doucet and Jeremy Culley, “Iran ready to discuss compromises to reach nuclear deal, minister tells BBC in Tehran,” British Broadcasting Corporation, February 15, 2026, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyz4y3zwz5o