Now, Cuba?
Civilians are unsafe everywhere
I had been inclined to diminish the prospect of an immediate attack on Cuba due to Donald Trump’s utterly failed, utterly stupid war on Iran.[1] Looks like I was wrong, as it seems preparations are already being made.[2]
Politico reports, “These strategically placed assets set the table for military action, from a capture of Havana’s leadership much like the seizure of former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, to a series of precision strikes. And they open the possibility that the U.S. throws itself into the third international conflict of the Trump administration.
“Cuba is ‘in a lot of trouble,’ Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday at a full Cabinet meeting. ‘Having a failed state 90 miles from our shores is a threat to the national security of the United States.’”[3]
It’s worth noting that Cuba is “failing” in significant part due to a blockade imposed by the U.S. As the country’s president put it, “Cuba is not a failed state. Cuba is a besieged state. Cuba is a state facing multidimensional aggression: economic warfare, an intensified blockade and an energy blockade.”[4] The Associated Press explains that “[t]he oil embargo imposed by Trump worsened the already harsh conditions brought on by an economic crisis that has lasted for five years, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and a tightening of U.S. sanctions aimed at pressuring for a change in the island’s political model.”[5]
I am a little bit—only a little bit—reminded of Lawrence James’ assessment of historical Britain’s position toward Ireland: He argued that Ireland was too near for the British to ignore.[6] But there is a certain vitriol that U.S. politicians hold for Cuba that I am in no position to compare to that of the British for Ireland. And this vitriol, which I find difficult to fathom, has been absorbed into a larger pattern of vitriol, which I absolutely condemn, characteristic of white Christian nationalism.
Cuba already faces a humanitarian crisis due to the U.S. blockade.[7] Military action of any kind can only make it worse.
[1] Julian Borger, “‘They have screwed each other pretty badly’: tensions emerge in Netanyahu-Trump alliance,” Guardian, May 9, 2026, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/09/tensions-emerge-bejamin-netanyahu-donald-trump-alliance; Dan Rather, “Has Trump Lost His War?” Steady, May 26, 2026, https://steady.substack.com/p/has-trump-lost-his-war; Jeffrey D. Sachs and Sybil Fares, “The war on Iran will likely end in American retreat,” Al Jazeera, May 9, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/5/9/the-war-on-iran-will-likely-end-in-american-retreat
[2] Paul McLeary, “Pentagon puts building blocks in place for Cuba invasion,” Politico, May 27, 2026, https://www.politico.com/news/2026/05/27/cuba-us-military-attack-00938740
[3] Paul McLeary, “Pentagon puts building blocks in place for Cuba invasion,” Politico, May 27, 2026, https://www.politico.com/news/2026/05/27/cuba-us-military-attack-00938740
[4] Miguel Díaz-Canel, quoted in Andrea Rodríguez, “Cuba’s president says island does not wish for US aggression but ready to fight if needed,” Associated Press, April 16, 2026, https://apnews.com/article/cuba-president-diaz-canel-fight-us-trump-98317390837f6aa8f560ea157b169c2b
[5] Andrea Rodríguez, “Cuba’s president says island does not wish for US aggression but ready to fight if needed,” Associated Press, April 16, 2026, https://apnews.com/article/cuba-president-diaz-canel-fight-us-trump-98317390837f6aa8f560ea157b169c2b
[6] Lawrence James, The Rise and Fall of the British Empire (New York, St. Martin’s Griffin, 1994).
[7] Andrea Rodríguez, “Cuba’s president says island does not wish for US aggression but ready to fight if needed,” Associated Press, April 16, 2026, https://apnews.com/article/cuba-president-diaz-canel-fight-us-trump-98317390837f6aa8f560ea157b169c2b