Donald Trump’s bad day
Vladimir Putin and some of Trump’s rivals had a better one
See update for August 21, 2025, at end of post.
Our raging narcissist-in-chief had a bad day, Friday (August 15).
Coming out of his meeting with Vladimir Putin in Alaska, there is no deal on a ceasefire in Ukraine,[1] but it also doesn’t sound like Donald Trump will impose the sanctions on Russia he had threatened.[2] Jamie Dettmer argues that Putin triumphs—in ways I tend to dismiss—by Trump’s honoring him.[3] More substantively, Trump, while coming away with little if anything of substance,[4] is dropping his earlier demand for a ceasefire prior to negotiations: “Putin has repeatedly rejected calls for a ceasefire, insisting on lengthy negotiations for a final peace deal that Ukraine and its European allies say are just a cover for taking more territory,”[5] an assessment consistent with Putin’s earlier ‘negotiations.’
This, along with the still-raging genocide in Gaza, will do little to answer Barack Obama’s Nobel Peace Prize with one of Trump’s own.
Meanwhile, a federal judge has reasserted Washington’s control over its own white supremacist gang following Donald Trump’s attempt to assert direct control[6] as he claimed without evidence that crime was rising in the capital and he sought to address homelessness.[7] As Judge Ana C. Reyes directed, “the Justice Department issued a rewritten version of [Attorney General Pam] Bondi’s order that named the [Drug Enforcement Administration] chief, Terry Cole, as Bondi’s designee to the [District of Columbia] police, without giving him control of the department.”[8]
All of this was supposed to divert attention from the drama over the Jeffrey Epstein files[9] and, well, a few other things.[10] Usually, you want to distract people with wins. Trump is trying to distract them with yet more losses. I’m not sure that works.
At some point, reality bites and it’s little wonder that Trump looked tired after the meeting.
Update, August 17, 2025: It looks like one of the points that Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin agreed on at their meeting was that Ukraine would have to give up land—“Russia would relinquish tiny pockets of occupied Ukraine and Kyiv would cede swathes of its eastern land which Moscow has been unable to capture”[11]—for peace. Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly rejected this idea and Trump even conceded that Ukraine still might not agree to it.[12]
Russia would also gain “formal” recognition from the U.S. of its claim to Crimea, which it seized in its earlier attack in 2014, and the territory it gains from a peace deal,[13] relief from at least some sanctions, official status for the Russian language in at least some parts of Ukraine, and freedom for the Russian Orthodox Church to operate in Ukraine.[14]
The story varies a bit on security guarantees for Ukraine: “Putin did say he was willing to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine . . . [b]ut he mentioned China as one of the possible guarantors, possibly suggesting he would oppose a security force consisting of NATO troops.”[15] Julia Ioffe writes rather of “Putin’s reported insistence that Ukraine formally drop its NATO bid, and that any security guarantees Ukraine does receive should involve Russian allies China and Belarus in addition to Ukraine’s Western allies. (You can imagine how well China and Belarus will guarantee Ukraine’s security, and in whose favor they’d adjudicate purported violations of the peace.)” She sees Putin’s demands as “poison pills” that Ukraine would never agree to, which she thinks was Putin’s intention.[16]
I continue to believe that the only thing that will persuade Putin to give up his imperial aspirations is a humiliating defeat—that Ukraine is unlikely to be able to inflict even with material support from the West.
Putin may be aiming next for a corridor to the Baltic Sea.[17] I’ll have to leave to others how the force deployments might look but I’m concerned that this may stretch defenses thin.
Update, August 18, 2025: The one thing that emerges from a White House meeting today between Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and a number of European leaders is that Trump didn’t blow up in Zelenskyy’s face. The outcome continues to look very much like it did following Trump’s meeting with Vladimir Putin, with Trump hoping to set up a trilateral meeting—which Putin has always previously rejected—between himself, Zelenskyy, and Putin.[18]
Update, August 20, 2025: This is too rich: “Moscow won’t agree with collective security guarantees negotiated without Russia … Russia will accept if the security guarantees to Ukraine are provided on equal basis with the participation of countries like China, the United States, the United Kingdom and France.”[19] From this, it appears that Donald Trump, “who touted recent meetings with Putin and then Zelenskyy and European leaders as a success,” accomplished absolutely nothing at his meeting with Vladimir Putin.[20]
Update, August 21, 2025: Between Donald Trump and the Russians, security guarantees for Ukraine are—long before any peace deal has even begun to be negotiated—looking increasingly meaningless.[21] Trump’s bad day is now looking even worse for the Ukrainians.
[1] Michael Birnbaum et al., “Trump, Putin break off summit with no Ukraine deal as talks end early,” Washington Post, August 15, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/08/15/trump-putin-alaska-ukraine-zelensky/; Eli Stokols, “Trump: ‘No deal’ after Putin meeting but the U.S. president will call Zelenskyy,” Politico, August 15, 2025, https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/15/trump-putin-alaska-ukraine-00512589
[2] Eli Stokols, “Trump: ‘No deal’ after Putin meeting but the U.S. president will call Zelenskyy,” Politico, August 15, 2025, https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/15/trump-putin-alaska-ukraine-00512589
[3] Jamie Dettmer, “Putin’s Alaska triumph,” Politico, August 16, 2025, https://www.politico.eu/article/putins-alaska-triumph/
[4] Kelly Rissman, “‘Putin clearly won’: Pundits say meeting was ‘bad for Americans’ after Trump’s ‘no deal’ Alaska summit,” Independent, August 15, 2025, https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-putin-summit-result-no-deal-ukraine-b2808774.html
[5] David L. Stern, “Trump splits with allies, drops ceasefire demand for Ukraine war,” Washington Post, August 16, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/08/16/ukraine-washington-zelensky-russia-trump/
[6] Meagan Flynn et al., “Judge: D.C. police chief remains in command, but Trump can likely demand help on immigration,” Washington Post, August 15, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2025/08/14/bondi-police-chief-dc-cole/
[7] Michael Birnbaum and Perry Stein, “Trump orders federal takeover of D.C. police, deploys National Guard,” Washington Post, August 11, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/08/11/trump-national-guard-dc-crime-crackdown/
[8] Meagan Flynn et al., “Judge: D.C. police chief remains in command, but Trump can likely demand help on immigration,” Washington Post, August 15, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2025/08/14/bondi-police-chief-dc-cole/
[9] David Benfell, “Will ‘The Big Beautiful Bill’ crack Donald Trump’s white Christian nationalist monolith?” Not Housebroken, August 6, 2025, https://www.disunitedstates.org/p/will-the-big-beautiful-bill-crack
[10] David Benfell, “A cornered, wounded animal,” Not Housebroken, August 16, 2025, https://www.disunitedstates.org/p/a-cornered-wounded-animal
[11] Tom Balmworth, “Outline emerges of Putin's offer to end his war in Ukraine,” Reuters, August 17, 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/outline-emerges-putins-offer-end-his-war-ukraine-2025-08-17/
[12] Tom Balmworth, “Outline emerges of Putin's offer to end his war in Ukraine,” Reuters, August 17, 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/outline-emerges-putins-offer-end-his-war-ukraine-2025-08-17/; Dan Sabbagh, “Zelenskyy may be asked to cede land to Russia at Trump meeting in Washington,” Guardian, August 16, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/aug/16/zelenskyy-to-meet-trump-on-monday-putin-alaska-summit-briefing
[13] Barak Ravid and Dave Lawler, “Putin made maximalist claims to Ukrainian territory in Trump summit: Sources,” Axios, August 16, 2025, https://www.axios.com/2025/08/16/putin-trump-summit-territory-claims-donetsk
[14] Tom Balmworth, “Outline emerges of Putin's offer to end his war in Ukraine,” Reuters, August 17, 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/outline-emerges-putins-offer-end-his-war-ukraine-2025-08-17/; Dan Sabbagh, “Zelenskyy may be asked to cede land to Russia at Trump meeting in Washington,” Guardian, August 16, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/aug/16/zelenskyy-to-meet-trump-on-monday-putin-alaska-summit-briefing
[15] Tom Balmworth, “Outline emerges of Putin's offer to end his war in Ukraine,” Reuters, August 17, 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/outline-emerges-putins-offer-end-his-war-ukraine-2025-08-17/
[16] Julia Ioffe, in Leigh Ann Caldwell to The Best and Brightest list, “Putin’s Poison Pills, OpenAI InfoSec & Altman’s Long Game,” Puck, August 17, 2025, https://puck.news/newsletters/the-best-the-brightest/
[17] Katya Adler, “Russia's next move? The countries trying to Putin-proof themselves,” British Broadcasting Corporation, March 20, 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ceqjd11l55wo
[18] Matthias Matthijs, “Major Takeaways From Trump’s Meeting With Zelenskyy and European Leaders,” Council on Foreign Relations, August 18, 2025, https://www.cfr.org/article/major-takeaways-trumps-meeting-zelenskyy-and-european-leaders
[19] Sergey Lavrov, quoted in Ketrin Jochecová, “Russia wants … Russia to have veto over Western security guarantees for Ukraine,” Politico, August 20, 2025, https://www.politico.eu/article/kremlin-russia-want-veto-security-guarantee-ukraine-sergey-lavrov/
[20] Ketrin Jochecová, “Russia wants … Russia to have veto over Western security guarantees for Ukraine,” Politico, August 20, 2025, https://www.politico.eu/article/kremlin-russia-want-veto-security-guarantee-ukraine-sergey-lavrov/
[21] Jamie Dettmer, “Putin waits for Trump to get bored,” Politico, August 21, 2025, https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/brussels-playbook/putin-waits-for-trump-to-get-bored/