Donald Trump may be doubling down on the utterly stupid war he has already lost
Almost certainly, something is afoot
See updates through May 25, 2026 at end of post.
Is the war with Iran about to get hot again?
According to Raw Story, J. D. Vance’s “unplanned return [to the White House] was just one piece of a larger set of events that sent X into overdrive on Friday [May 22]. Conservative content creator Matt Van Swol stitched several of them together in a single post that quickly went viral.
“‘Just in the last 24 hours: [Donald] Trump skips his own son's wedding. JD Vance + Hegseth race back to the White House. Chief of Staff posting videos of B-2 bombers,’ Van Swol wrote. ‘Something MASSIVE must be about to happen. What is going on??!!!!’
“The reference to B-2 bombers, the U.S. military's stealth long-range strategic platform historically associated with strikes on fortified targets, added another layer to the online chatter. So did the fact that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was reportedly returning to the White House at the same time as the VP.”[1]
For his part, Trump claims “[a]n Agreement [with Iran] has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the various other Countries, as listed. Separately, I had a call with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel, which, likewise, went very well. Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly. In addition to many other elements of the Agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened.”[2] Of course, Trump has said this many times before, often to Iranian denials, and without such an agreement coming to fruition.
On the other hand, the clues Van Swol cite seem to me to suggest terrible operational security. Of course, this administration is much more notable for hubris and stupidity than it is intelligence.
Those clues could also suggest a sudden decision—or perhaps a sudden reversal of a previously made decision. But the Raw Story article was published at 3:30 pm on May 23rd.[3] Trump posted at 4:30 pm on the same day.[4] (Both times are likely Eastern.) This is the reverse of a timeline indicating a war about to get hot again. The magnitude of the clues that Van Swol cites, however, lead me to strongly suspect that any claim of a deal is yet again meant to pretend peace prior to an attack.
Update, May 24, 2026: Yves Smith, among others, too, have doubts about Donald Trump’s claim of an agreement: “First, Trump depicts the listed countries, including Turkiye, Pakistan, and Jordan as parties to the deal, meaning signatories. That can’t be right. Plus multiparty deals are extremely time-consuming to consummate. Second, Israel is clearly NOT a party to the deal. So how can this possibly get done? Iran has insisted and will continue to insist on a cessation of hostilities on all fronts, which includes Lebanon. Trump is not even pretending he has Israel’s participation or consent.
“The US could not get Ukraine to bend to its wishes. Think Trump can get the much more politically and media-connected Israel to do so? Recall additionally that some YouTubers are saying (I confess to not independently verifying) that Israel now has more missiles in theater than the US. And it can also engage in terrorism, likely assassinating more key Iranian figures.”[5]
Specifically, it seems that Iran has not agreed to re-open the Strait of Hormuz. And no one is talking about Iran’s nuclear program.[6]
Update, May 25, 2026: Supposedly the deal between the U.S. and Iran would extend the ceasefire for 60 days, re-open the Strait of Hormuz, allow Iran to sell its oil, and unfreeze Iranian funds. Negotiations are to be held on Iran’s nuclear program. Further, Israel’s war on Hezbollah in Lebanon would end.[7] Hardline Republicans (likely neoconservatives) are strongly opposing the deal but Donald Trump is also under pressure from white Christian nationalists in his base (who opposed the war from the outset) and on the economy (which might doom Republicans in the upcoming midterm elections).[8]
[1] David McAfee, “Rumors fly as Vance makes ‘unplanned’ U-turn to White House: ‘Something massive,’” Raw Story, May 23, 2026, https://www.rawstory.com/rumors-jd-vance-fly-iran/
[2] Donald J. Trump, “I am in the Oval Office . . .,” Truth Social, May 23, 2026, https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116625784011805994
[3] David McAfee, “Rumors fly as Vance makes ‘unplanned’ U-turn to White House: ‘Something massive,’” Raw Story, May 23, 2026, https://www.rawstory.com/rumors-jd-vance-fly-iran/
[4] Donald J. Trump, “I am in the Oval Office . . .,” Truth Social, May 23, 2026, https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116625784011805994
[5] Yves Smith [Susan Webber], “Iran War: Trump Announces Iran Deal with Iran Already Disputing His Claims; Hawk Heads Exploding; Even if Pact Concluded, Strait of Hormuz Traffic Expected to Reach Only 40% of Old Level by Year End,” Naked Capitalism, May 24, 2026, https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/05/iran-war-trump-announces-iran-deal-with-iran-already-disputing-his-claims-hawk-heads-exploding-even-if-pact-concluded-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-expected-to-reach-only-40-of-old-level-by-year-end.html
[6] Yves Smith [Susan Webber], “Iran War: Trump Announces Iran Deal with Iran Already Disputing His Claims; Hawk Heads Exploding; Even if Pact Concluded, Strait of Hormuz Traffic Expected to Reach Only 40% of Old Level by Year End,” Naked Capitalism, May 24, 2026, https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/05/iran-war-trump-announces-iran-deal-with-iran-already-disputing-his-claims-hawk-heads-exploding-even-if-pact-concluded-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-expected-to-reach-only-40-of-old-level-by-year-end.html
[7] Barak Ravid, “What's inside the Iran deal Trump is close to signing,” Axios, May 23, 2026, https://www.axios.com/2026/05/24/iran-deal-strait-hormuz-sanctions-nuclear
[8] Eli Okun, “A turning point in the war?” Politico, May 24, 2026, https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2026/05/24/a-turning-point-in-the-war-00935158