Donald Trump is probably hallucinating
He claims to have had productive talks with Iran
This post has been updated with further developments, on March 24, 2026, since it was first published.
Donald Trump claimed that he has had productive talks with Iran and is therefore delaying threatened strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days.[1] Iran denied that any such talks have taken place and suggested that his “statements are part of efforts to reduce energy prices and buy time to implement his military plans.”[2]
Trump then claimed “his envoys, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, had engaged in talks with Iran, and that, ‘We’ve had very strong talks. Mr. Witkoff and Kushner had them. They went perfectly.’ He added, ‘I would say that if they carry through with that, it’ll end that problem, that conflict.’ Trump said there were ‘major points of agreement’ not only on access to the Strait of Hormuz but also on the Iranian nuclear program and the war in general.” Drop Site News’ source, an unnamed “senior Iranian official,” denies this as well.[3]
All of which raises the question of whom the psychotic, psychopathic, and ragingly narcissistic Trump thinks “his envoys” are negotiating with, if anyone.
Speculation, from multiple outlets, is centering around the Iranian parliament’s speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. He denies it and there is good reason for skepticism, first, that Iran denies that any such talks are occurring; second, that any such talks “would need to be approved by new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and the Supreme National Security Council for them to have any legitimacy;”[4] and third, this possibility entails a theocracy negotiating with “The Great Satan,” so aptly personified by Trump and Binyamin Netanyahu themselves.
It’s also very apparent that Trump’s and Netanyahu’s war on Iran is not going well, something else Trump refuses to acknowledge. After all, anyone with a brain would have told Trump and Netanyahu they were biting off more than they could chew.
We haven’t been seeing it so much in U.S. media, but the Times of Israel was reporting on casualties and destruction resulting from Iranian munitions penetrating Israeli defenses.[5] And to peruse the news channels on Telegram has been to see a war that is only escalating.
Trump was threatening Iranian power stations,[6] which seems an unlikely way to persuade Iranians to rise up against the regime, in a likely doomed effort to persuade that regime to re-open the Strait of Hormuz.[7] Iranian citizens, indeed, are almost certainly suffering the most from this destructive war but I’m seeing almost no coverage of their plight.
All of which is to say that both sides have ample reason to negotiate.[8]
My own guess—it seems I’m not alone[9]—is that Trump is seeking an off-ramp. Trouble here is that I doubt—again, it seems I’m not alone[10]—that Netanyahu, who has wanted this war for as long as anyone can remember, will go along. Another problem, Jennifer Rubin argues, is that Trump sped right past all the available off-ramps and now faces a situation now more akin to going over Niagara Falls.[11]
The Hill raises the worrying prospect that “[o]n the flip side, it’s also possible that Trump is bluffing or playing for time to get more American forces to the region. The Wall Street Journal noted Monday afternoon that ‘thousands of U.S. Marines’ are due to arrive in the Middle East on Friday, the same day as Trump’s new five-day deadline.”[12]
Obviously, I don’t know which it is. Given Trump’s likely dementia, it’s possible he doesn’t know which it is. One thing I’m certain of is that with Trump, we are not playing 12-dimensional chess. After all, he was stupid enough to get us into this war in the first place.
[1] Donald Trump, “I AM PLEASED TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN . . . .” Truth Social, March 23, 2026, https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116278232362967212
[2] Mizan News Agency, “Iranian Foreign Ministry: There is no dialogue between Tehran and Washington . . . ,” X, trans. Google, March 23, 2026, https://x.com/MizanNewsAgency/status/2036052143501652206
[3] Jeremy Scahill and Murtaza Hussain, “Iran Blasts Trump’s Claims of Direct Talks as “Fake News” Aimed at Manipulating Markets,” Drop Site News, March 23, 2026, https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/iran-blasts-trump-claims-direct-talks-false-market-manipulation
[4] Sarah Shamim, “Is the US talking to Iran’s Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and who is he?” Al Jazeera, March 24, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/24/is-the-us-talking-to-irans-mohammad-bagher-ghalibaf-and-who-is-he
[5] Emanuel Fabian, Diana Bletter, and Nava Freiberg, “15 injured, one seriously, as Iranian cluster munitions impact in central Israel,” Times of Israel, March 22, 2026, https://www.timesofisrael.com/15-injured-one-seriously-as-iranian-cluster-munitions-impact-in-central-israel/; Times of Israel, “Almost 200 injured, 11 seriously, in Iranian missile strikes on southern cities of Arad, Dimona,” March 22, 2026, https://www.timesofisrael.com/over-100-injured-11-seriously-in-iranian-missile-strikes-on-southern-cities-of-arad-dimona/
[6] Times of Israel, “48 hours: Trump threatens to ‘obliterate’ Iran’s power plants if Strait of Hormuz remains shut,” March 22, 2026, https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-threatens-to-obliterate-irans-power-plants-if-strait-of-hormuz-remains-shut/
[7] Times of Israel, “48 hours: Trump threatens to ‘obliterate’ Iran’s power plants if Strait of Hormuz remains shut,” March 22, 2026, https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-threatens-to-obliterate-irans-power-plants-if-strait-of-hormuz-remains-shut/
[8] Sarah Shamim, “Is the US talking to Iran’s Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and who is he?” Al Jazeera, March 24, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/24/is-the-us-talking-to-irans-mohammad-bagher-ghalibaf-and-who-is-he
[9] For example, Niall Stanage, “Trump looks for the off-ramp on Iran,” Hill, March 23, 2026, https://thehill.com/homenews/5797090-trump-iran-war-oil-prices-negotiations/
[10] For example, Niall Stanage, “Trump looks for the off-ramp on Iran,” Hill, March 23, 2026, https://thehill.com/homenews/5797090-trump-iran-war-oil-prices-negotiations/
[11] Jennifer Rubin, “Words & Phrases,” Contrarian, March 24, 2026, https://www.contrariannews.org/p/words-and-phrases-9dd
[12] Niall Stanage, “Trump looks for the off-ramp on Iran,” Hill, March 23, 2026, https://thehill.com/homenews/5797090-trump-iran-war-oil-prices-negotiations/