Russian drones infringe Polish airspace
Vladimir Putin might be in a hurry to restore the Russian Empire
See updates through September 19, 2025, at end of post.
Details are extremely sketchy and it is hard to know quite where to begin: “On Friday [September 5], Russian-Belarusian manoeuvres, very aggressive from a military doctrine perspective, begin in Belarus, very close to the Polish border,” leading Poland to close its border with Belarus.[1] Now, a number of Russian drones have entered Polish airspace, leading Poland to close four airports, including Warsaw. Apparently these drones have now left and Polish and North Atlantic Treaty Organization forces shot down some of them.[2]
The incident today (September 9) follows a Russian drone crash in Polish territory last month.[3] Poland is, of course, a NATO ally.
Poland is among the countries whose territory historically was in part or in whole a part of the Russian Empire.[4] Vladimir Putin has made clear he seeks to emulate Peter the Great, restoring as much of that empire as he can,[5] which makes it a whole lot harder to dismiss today’s incursion as any sort of mistake or as possibly being unintentional.
Update, September 10, 2025: The original post has been updated with information from Cable News Network. Russia’s incursion into Polish airspace[6] also occurs in the context of threats against Finland, which the Institute for the Study of War sees as paralleling the rhetoric against Ukraine.[7] It appears that Vladimir Putin is feeling his oats after a show of support from China.[8]
Update, September 15, 2025: Anne Appelbaum adds this about the Russian incursion: “But in demonstrating divisions in NATO, [the Russians] partly succeeded. Europeans clearly backed Poland, but [Donald] Trump posted a bizarre statement on Truth Social (“What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!”) and then said the attack might have been an “accident.” Nobody who has seriously examined the incident agrees. The attack lasted several hours; the drones did not carry warheads, which apparently helped them to fly farther; also, the lack of explosives means that they were not originally aimed at Ukrainian targets, and did not somehow go astray.”[9]
Russia has followed up the incursion into Poland with one into Romania.[10]
Update, September 19, 2025: Just keeping track: First Poland and Romania,[11] and now Estonia.[12] The consensus seems to be that Russia is seeking to divert North Atlantic Treaty Organization resources away from Ukraine toward self-defense,[13] but this seems like a bit of a stretch to me: NATO exists to repel a full-on Russian invasion. It should be able to handle this.
Europe has, of course, been worried about a Russian invasion, in varying degrees, all along, but more so recently.[14] But Vladimir Putin, whose imperial aspirations can hardly be doubted,[15] currently has his hands full in Ukraine. He can’t seriously be planning an attack on NATO right now, which seems to argue for that consensus that this is a diversion. Either way, he seems to be wanting attention, like a spoiled little boy throwing a temper tantrum.
[1] Donald Tusk, quoted in Reuters, “Poland to close Belarus border due to Russia-led military exercises, PM says,” September 9, 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-close-belarus-border-due-russia-led-military-exercises-pm-says-2025-09-09/
[2] Brad Lendon et al., “NATO shoots down Russian drones in Polish airspace, accusing Moscow of being ‘absolutely reckless,’” Cable News Network, September 10, 2025, https://edition.cnn.com/2025/09/09/europe/poland-scramble-jets-russian-drone-reports-intl-hnk-ml; Guardian, “Poland shoots down drones over its territory amid Russian attack on Ukraine, prime minister says,” September 9, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/sep/10/poland-shoots-down-drones-over-its-territory-amid-russian-attack-on-ukraine-says-military; MAKS 25, Mastodon, September 9, 2025, https://mastodon.social/@MAKS23
[3] Deutschewelle, “Polish officials say crashed drone is Russian ‘provocation,’” August 20, 2025, https://www.dw.com/en/polish-officials-say-crashed-drone-is-russian-provocation/a-73709484
[4] New York Times, "Ukraine Crisis in Maps," n.d., http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/02/27/world/europe/ukraine-divisions-crimea.html
[5] Julian O’Shaughnessy, “I’m reconquering just like Peter the Great, insists Vladimir Putin,” Times, June 10, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/president-putin-creates-police-department-to-impose-martial-law-xqhlt79fn; Reuters, “Hailing Peter the Great, Putin draws parallel with mission to ‘return’ Russian lands,” June 9, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hailing-peter-great-putin-draws-parallel-with-mission-return-russian-lands-2022-06-09/
[6] Brad Lendon et al., “NATO shoots down Russian drones in Polish airspace, accusing Moscow of being ‘absolutely reckless,’” Cable News Network, September 10, 2025, https://edition.cnn.com/2025/09/09/europe/poland-scramble-jets-russian-drone-reports-intl-hnk-ml; Guardian, “Poland shoots down drones over its territory amid Russian attack on Ukraine, prime minister says,” September 9, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/sep/10/poland-shoots-down-drones-over-its-territory-amid-russian-attack-on-ukraine-says-military; MAKS 25, Mastodon, September 9, 2025, https://mastodon.social/@MAKS23
[7] Institute for the Study of War, “Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 8, 2025,” September 8, 2025, https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-8-2025/
[8] Brad Lendon et al., “NATO shoots down Russian drones in Polish airspace, accusing Moscow of being ‘absolutely reckless,’” Cable News Network, September 10, 2025, https://edition.cnn.com/2025/09/09/europe/poland-scramble-jets-russian-drone-reports-intl-hnk-ml
[9] Anne Appelbaum, “Russia Expands the Air War,” Open Letters, September 15, 2025, https://anneapplebaum.substack.com/p/russia-expands-the-air-war
[10] Ian Casey and Alex Boyd, “Romania becomes second Nato country to report Russian drone in its airspace,” British Broadcasting Corporation, September 14, 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c80g7g5rmlno
[11] Anne Appelbaum, “Russia Expands the Air War,” Open Letters, September 15, 2025, https://anneapplebaum.substack.com/p/russia-expands-the-air-war; Ian Casey and Alex Boyd, “Romania becomes second Nato country to report Russian drone in its airspace,” British Broadcasting Corporation, September 14, 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c80g7g5rmlno; Guardian, “Poland shoots down drones over its territory amid Russian attack on Ukraine, prime minister says,” September 9, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/sep/10/poland-shoots-down-drones-over-its-territory-amid-russian-attack-on-ukraine-says-military; Julia Ioffe, “No Man’s Poland,” Puck, September 11, 2025, https://puck.news/how-putins-drone-incursion-on-poland-tested-natos-resolve/;
Brad Lendon et al., “NATO shoots down Russian drones in Polish airspace, accusing Moscow of being ‘absolutely reckless,’” Cable News Network, September 11, 2025, https://edition.cnn.com/2025/09/09/europe/poland-scramble-jets-russian-drone-reports-intl-hnk-ml; MAKS 25, Mastodon, September 9, 2025, https://mastodon.social/@MAKS23; Shaun Walker, “Russian drone incursion into Poland ‘was Kremlin test on Nato,’” Guardian, September 14, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/sep/14/russian-drone-incursion-poland-nato-ukraine-europe
[12] Geir Moulson and Andrew Wilks, “Estonia says 3 Russian fighter jets entered its airspace in ‘brazen’ incursion,” Associated Press, September 19, 2025, https://apnews.com/article/british-intelligence-mi6-russia-war-443df0c37ff2254fcc33d5425e3beaa6
[13] Shaun Walker, “Russian drone incursion into Poland ‘was Kremlin test on Nato,’” Guardian, September 14, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/sep/14/russian-drone-incursion-poland-nato-ukraine-europe
[14] Katya Adler, “Russia's next move? The countries trying to Putin-proof themselves,” British Broadcasting Corporation, March 20, 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ceqjd11l55wo; Frank Gardner and Tessa Wong, “Russia may attack Nato in next four years, German defence chief warns,” British Broadcasting Corporation, June 1, 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62v63gl8rvo
[15] Julian O’Shaughnessy, “I’m reconquering just like Peter the Great, insists Vladimir Putin,” Times, June 10, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/president-putin-creates-police-department-to-impose-martial-law-xqhlt79fn; Reuters, “Hailing Peter the Great, Putin draws parallel with mission to ‘return’ Russian lands,” June 9, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hailing-peter-great-putin-draws-parallel-with-mission-return-russian-lands-2022-06-09/