Authoritarianism is the plan
Don't bet on a 2028 general election
I can’t say I know quite what to make of Donald Trump, whose health is very much in question,[1] and whom I doubt will survive to the end of his term in January 2029,[2] promising the White House Congressional Ball, “We’re going to have a great three years, four years, 10 years, we’re going to make it great. Our country’s going to be strong, safe, rich, it’s going to be great. We’re going to make America great again!”[3]
Indeed, I’m filing Trump’s musing about whether his son, Don, Jr., would attend his memorial service[4] right along with his musing that he doesn’t “think there's anything going to get [him] in heaven.”[5] It sure sounds to me like he’s contemplating his mortality.
In truth, this presidency has three major narratives that will determine the course of future events: First, as already discussed, Trump’s health; second, his increasing authoritarianism, which may well outlive him; and third, his increasingly doubtful hold on the Republican Party; with the latter two intertwined.
Steve Bannon quoted a “top constitutional lawyer” as saying “you can drive a Mack truck through the 22nd Amendment,” the amendment which is generally understood to limit presidents to two terms,[6] while our raging narcissist-in-chief is apparently furious[7]—about his dismal poll ratings,[8] in part due to fissures multiplying within white Christian nationalism,[9] which are undermining his control of the Republican Party,[10] which would seem to bode ill for any re-election attempt.
But this assumes a general election occurs. Hugo Balta argues, “The idea that Trump could run again in 2028 is legally implausible. But in today’s political climate, implausibility is no longer a deterrent—it’s a dare. The real danger isn’t that Trump will succeed in securing a third term. It’s that the conversation itself normalizes the erosion of constitutional boundaries.”[11]
“Erosion,” I think, is entirely too moderate a word for it. If 2025 offers one lesson, it is that Trump has little regard for the courts or the law, let alone the Constitution. And we are not, at this writing (December 15), even a year into Trump’s second term. And as Trump loses his hold on the vestiges of representative government, he gains motivation to bypass it entirely.
Are we there yet? I think we’re getting close.
Consider, for instance, National Security Presidential Memorandum 7.[12] I was already arguably a domestic terrorist for my support of nonhuman animal rights.[13] Now I am one for arguably being “anti-Christian,”[14] for being anti-capitalist, for being an ‘extremist’ on migration, race, and gender, and for opposing (therefore “hostile towards”) “traditional American views on family, religion, and morality.”[15]
Supposedly my views are protected by the First Amendment, but 1) Trump refused to rule out summary executions of those he views as ‘domestic terrorists’[16] and 2) contradictory language surrounding a radically right-wing National Security Strategy,[17] NSPM-7, and a related memorandum from Attorney General Pam Bondi recalls the McCarthy era with a potential for blacklisting, monitoring, and surveillance.[18] (Yeah, I’ve been trying to tighten my privacy protections.)
The Supreme Court has mostly been enabling Trump,[19] suggesting that where there is any conceivable, no matter how contrived, way of interpreting the law or the Constitution in his favor, they will do so. Which is to say the guardrails are gone and the Constitution is, for all practical purposes, of very limited relevance. As I have previously noted, it’s an aconstitutional broligarchy now, where Trump and the very wealthy are, for the most part, beyond moral or legal challenge.[20]
It is difficult to forecast what this country will look like in three years when the next general election is scheduled in 2028. Indeed, I might choose the term “radical uncertainty” except that I am confident we are increasingly in a competitive authoritarian regime, where laws, courts, and elections are all interpreted and tilted heavily in favor of the ruling party.[21] I cannot presume that the general election will be held or that, if it is held, it will be “free and fair.”
Of course, it is also my expectation that Trump will not live that long.[22] If I am right, it will be President J. D. Vance, who probably cannot command Trump’s following, but who may also be a complete wildcard, far less interested in ideology than in power.[23] If this is true, he will certainly continue to build on Trump’s aconstitutional order.
Whether it is President Trump or President Vance, we have no reason to anticipate any restoration of checks and balances on presidential power. Trump has been ruling increasingly by executive order. When the courts rule against him, he often defies them, sometimes through thin attempts at obfuscation, sometimes through delay, sometimes by appealing to that oh-so-very-friendly Supreme Court. He isn’t winning every battle, but he’s ultimately prevailing in enough of them.
Which is to say that the midterm elections may not matter as much as many expect. Following the off-year Republican wipeout in November,[24] Republicans are understandably alarmed by their prospects in the midterms.[25] Their inability to reach a consensus on how to deal with dramatically rising health insurance premiums—due to their insistence on cutting off Obamacare subsidies—is not helping.[26] And Republicans are getting restive.[27]
I’m hearing some, albeit not a lot, talk of Trump as a lame duck. It seems he no longer has coattails for other Republican politicians to ride on. There’s a lot of talk of Republican politicians deciding they’ve had enough and leaving Congress. As Peter Hamby put it, “With as many as 20 Republicans expected to call it quits in the coming weeks—not flame-outs like Marjorie Taylor Greene, but planned retirements at the end of their terms—the party’s governing majority seems to be breaking under the pressures of dysfunction, infighting, and, of course, Donald Trump. Even in power, Republicans feel powerless: They have no agenda, little to legislate, and no independence from a White House that treats the preeminent branch of government as a nuisance.”[28]
A “nuisance.” Let that sink in for a moment. Republicans control both the House of Representatives and the Senate. But for Trump, Congress is a “nuisance.”
One consequence, obviously, is that Trump is now less able to rely on Congress. But Trump doesn’t really care because the old idea that bills get proposed, go through committee hearings, and get voted on, then reconciled between the two houses, is not now his modus operandi. In June, Susan Hughes observed that “President Trump [had] signed 147 executive orders, setting a record for the most signed in any president’s first 100 days of office. By contrast, Trump has signed only five bills into law, a record low for the first 100 days.”[29] Trump is sidelining Congress in favor of authoritarianism, which he, it seems quite reasonably, expects the Supreme Court to uphold. And whether it’s Trump or Vance, we can expect this to continue. Indefinitely.
[1] Dan Rather, “How Sick Is He?” Steady, December 8, 2025, https://steady.substack.com/p/how-sick-is-he
[2] David Benfell, “The publicly absent Donald Trump,” Not Housebroken, October 10, 2025, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/the-publicly-absent-donald-trump
[3] Donald Trump, quoted in Catherine Bouris, “Trump Gives Chilling Hint on His Future Plans,” Daily Beast, December 12, 2025, https://apple.news/AYZxFLClGTwe2uv51veOqmg
[4] Katie Francis, “Trump, 79, Admits His Own Son Wouldn’t Want to Attend His Memorial,” Daily Beast, December 14, 2025, https://apple.news/AVyUeNBqeTTi5s3WCFC3-PQ
[5] Donald Trump, quoted in Kinsey Crowley, “‘I’m being a little cute.’ Trump considers if Gaza ceasefire will get him into heaven,” USA Today, October 13, 2025, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/10/13/donald-trump-heaven/86668964007/
[6] Steve Bannon, quoted in Catherine Bouris, “Trump Gives Chilling Hint on His Future Plans,” Daily Beast, December 12, 2025, https://apple.news/AYZxFLClGTwe2uv51veOqmg
[7] Greg Sargent, “Transcript: Trump’s Fury at Prices Goes Wild as Crushing New Polls Hit,” New Republic, November 20, 2025, https://newrepublic.com/article/203416/transcript-trump-fury-prices-goes-wild-crushing-new-polls-hit
[8] Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson, “How popular is Donald Trump?” Silver Bulletin, December 12, 2025, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin
[9] David Benfell, “Will there be a surprise ending?” Not Housebroken, October 31, 2025, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/will-there-be-a-surprise-ending; Leigh Ann Caldwell, “Chuck & Mike’s Freaky Friday,” Puck, December 14, 2025, https://puck.news/mike-johnsons-blue-christmas/; Andrew Solender and Kate Santaliz, “Republican lawmakers slam Trump's ‘inappropriate’ posts on Rob Reiner,” Axios, December 15, 2025, https://www.axios.com/2025/12/15/trump-rob-reiner-death-son-wife-post-republicans
[10] Jennifer Rubin, “Trump is Losing it,” Contrarian, December 15, 2025, https://contrarian.substack.com/p/trump-is-losing-it
[11] Hugo Balta, “Trump 2028—A Test of Constitutional Resolve,” Fulcrum, November 1, 2025, https://thefulcrum.us/democracy/can-donald-trump-run-for-president-in-2028
[12] Donald Trump, “Countering Domestic Terrorism and Organized Political Violence,” White House, September 25, 2025, https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/09/countering-domestic-terrorism-and-organized-political-violence/
[13] Jason Black and Jennifer Black, “The Rhetorical ‘Terrorist’: Implications of the USA Patriot Act on Animal Liberation,” Terrorists or Freedom Fighters? eds. Steven Best and Anthony J. Nocella, II (New York: Lantern, 2004).
[14] David Benfell, “On good and evil,” Not Housebroken, June 29, 2025, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/on-good-and-evil
[15] Donald Trump, “National Security Presidential Memorandum/NSPM-7,” quoted in Melinda Haas, “Labeling dissent as terrorism: New US domestic terrorism priorities raise constitutional alarms,” Conversation, December 3, 2025, https://theconversation.com/labeling-dissent-as-terrorism-new-us-domestic-terrorism-priorities-raise-constitutional-alarms-269161
[16] Thomas E. Brzozowski, “The Bondi Memo’s Quiet Rewriting of Domestic Terrorism Rules,” Lawfare, December 12, 2025, https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/the-bondi-memo-s-quiet-rewriting-of-domestic-terrorism-rules
[17] Donald Trump, “National Security Strategy of the United States of America,” White House, November 2025, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf
[18] Thomas E. Brzozowski, “The Bondi Memo’s Quiet Rewriting of Domestic Terrorism Rules,” Lawfare, December 12, 2025, https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/the-bondi-memo-s-quiet-rewriting-of-domestic-terrorism-rules
[19] Steven Greenhouse, “Why does the supreme court keep bending the knee to Trump?” Guardian, October 6, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/oct/06/supreme-court-donald-trump; Mark Joseph Stern, “The Supreme Court Is About to Hand Trump Insidious New Powers,” Slate, December 4, 2025, https://apple.news/AI7jKvSUDTJKayMZLxPH-fA
[20] David Benfell, “It’s an aconstitutional broligarchy now,” Not Housebroken, September 23, 2025, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/its-an-aconstitutional-broligarchy; David Benfell, “King Donald I,” Not Housebroken, September 8, 2025, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/king-donald-i
[21] Andrew Marantz, “Does Hungary Offer a Glimpse of Our Authoritarian Future?” New Yorker, June 27, 2022, https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/07/04/does-hungary-offer-a-glimpse-of-our-authoritarian-future
[22] David Benfell, “The publicly absent Donald Trump,” Not Housebroken, October 10, 2025, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/the-publicly-absent-donald-trump
[23] Adam Downer, “The Truth About JD and Usha Vance’s Marriage: Author,” Daily Beast, November 4, 2025, https://apple.news/ASU_3ooocQ2yJlAkgflK7yA
[24] David Benfell, “Election night, 2025,” Not Housebroken, November 5, 2025, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/election-night-2025
[25] Alexander Bolton and Caroline Vakil, “Republican lawmakers grow alarmed over signs of 2026 election wipeout,” Hill, November 24, 2025, https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5618168-republican-midterm-election-concerns/
[26] Jordain Carney, Meredith Lee Hill, and Nicholas Wu, “‘Our message is simple’: Democrats unite as GOP again struggles to address health care,” Politico, December 15, 2025, https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/15/gop-obamacare-message-muddled-00690145
[27] Leigh Ann Caldwell, “Chuck & Mike’s Freaky Friday,” Puck, December 14, 2025, https://puck.news/mike-johnsons-blue-christmas/
[28] Peter Hamby, “Retirement Watch 2026!” Puck, December 12, 2025, https://puck.news/house-republicans-are-facing-a-wave-of-retirements-in-2026/
[29] Susan A. Hughes, “Explainer: Executive orders as a governing tool,” Harvard Kennedy School, June 4, 2025, https://www.hks.harvard.edu/faculty-research/policy-topics/democracy-governance/explainer-executive-orders-governing-tool