About that little operation in Kursk
What better way to defeat an opponent than to get them to do it themselves?
See updates through August 21, 2024, at end of post.
One of the books I believe is on my shelf, but which I have not yet read, is Sun Tzu’s The Art of War. I would be extraordinarily surprised if he did not say something about attacking your opponent where they least expect it, as Ukraine seems to be doing in the Kursk region of Russia.[1]
The U.S. has said it was unclear about Ukrainian objectives in the operation,[2] but these may involve the circular firing squad now in the Kremlin.[3] Vladimir Putin had earlier reshuffled his military command in response to its dismal performance in Ukraine. Now, he may need to do it again.
And I am thinking, what better way to defeat an opponent than to get them to do it themselves?
Update, August 12, 2024 (yes, already!): One might say that this is sortakinda what I had in mind: “Military experts described the assault [on Kursk] as the most significant on Russian soil since the Second World War, and one which has hugely embarrassed [Vladimir] Putin.”[4] I have felt that humiliation for Putin was essential to a lasting peace. Why? From his very rough and tumble childhood, it’s the only language he understands.[5]
So, I have my humiliation. Of course, one outcome of this sort of thing is, well, what happened to Yevgeny Prigozhin. Arguably Alexei Navalny as well. But this is different, because the Ukrainians cannot so easily be cast as treasonous. This is a failure to defend the motherland from the people Putin calls ‘Nazis.’ And if I’m reading right, it seems to have gotten under Putin’s skin.[6]
I guess the one thing I’m learning to be able to forecast about how this turns out is that there will likely be some twists and turns along the way.
Update, August 13, 2024: Another, more predictable consequence of Ukraine’s feint toward Kursk is that Russia is withdrawing some troops from Ukraine, but from a deployment where the withdrawal is unlikely to make a difference.[7] Of course, if Ukraine succeeds in compelling Russia to withdraw more troops, that might start to make a difference.
Update, August 21, 2024:It would seem that Ukraine’s strategy with its Kursk incursion, now in its third week, is at least in part precisely what it says it is—a piece I’ve given short shrift as propaganda—giving Russian civilians a taste of the war that Russian forces are inflicting on Ukraine and its civilians. Ukraine has (allegedly) launched a massive drone attack across Russia.[8]
[1] Csongor Körömi, “Putin reacts as Russia battles a cross-border Ukrainian attack,” Politico, August 6, 2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-react-russia-battle-ukraine-attack-kursk-region/; Elena Giordano, “Ukraine’s offensive builds as Russia orders people to evacuate from second region,” Politico, August 12, 2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-evacuates-border-region-of-belgorod-as-ukrainian-military-activity-intensifies/
[2] Csongor Körömi, “Putin reacts as Russia battles a cross-border Ukrainian attack,” Politico, August 6, 2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-react-russia-battle-ukraine-attack-kursk-region/; Elena Giordano, “Ukraine’s offensive builds as Russia orders people to evacuate from second region,” Politico, August 12, 2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-evacuates-border-region-of-belgorod-as-ukrainian-military-activity-intensifies/
[3] Csongor Körömi, “Russian blame game heats up as Ukraine’s special military operation riles Putin,” Politico, August 12, 2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-blame-game-ukraine-war-special-military-operation/
[4] Bel Trew and Andy Gregory, “Ukraine’s surprise attack on Russian soil leaves Putin humiliated,” Independent, August 12, 2024, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-war-russia-putin-kursk-incursion-b2594068.html
[5] Julia Ioffe, “About a Boy: The Roots of Putin’s Evil,” Puck, May 10, 2022, https://puck.news/about-a-boy-the-roots-of-putins-evil/
[6] Bel Trew and Andy Gregory, “Ukraine’s surprise attack on Russian soil leaves Putin humiliated,” Independent, August 12, 2024, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-war-russia-putin-kursk-incursion-b2594068.html
[7] Veronika Melkozerova and Ali Walker, “Putin pulls units out of Ukraine to defend Russia, Kyiv says,” Politico, August 13, 2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-pull-army-units-out-ukraine-defend-russia-kursk-belgrod-region/
[8] Veronika Melkozerova, “Moscow under attack: Air defenses shoot down killer drones over Russian capital,” Politico, August 21, 2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/moscow-under-attack-air-defenses-shoot-down-killer-drones-over-russian-capital/