So, Donald Trump is back to yammering about a third term. Some might recall he felt cheated on his first term because of the investigations he endured and mused at that time that he should get a do-over.
So let’s start with the 22nd amendment, which begins, “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.”[1] So, assuming the U.S. Constitution is still in force and assuming it isn’t amended in the blink of an eye (as amendments go), Trump cannot be elected to a third term.
Some have suggested, and Trump has ruled out (for what little that’s worth), a ruse by which he is elected to the vice presidency so the person, likely J. D. Vance or Marco Rubio, elected as president would stand down, where Trump would resume the presidency through succession.[2]
A lot of folks assume the 12th amendment forbids this, saying, at the very end that “no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.”[3] I hate to say it, but there does seem to be a loophole here. The 22nd amendment merely says that Trump cannot be elected. It does not declare him ineligible. This would surely be headed for the courts, but my reading is that the Supreme Court would have language that they could squirm through to let Trump resume the presidency.
Of course, there are a couple ways where none of this matters. First, I doubt that Trump will live that long.[4] Second, we are no longer in a constitutional oligarchy but rather an aconstitutional broligarchy, where the Constitution is increasingly irrelevant.[5]
But if Trump lives and if “free and fair” presidential elections are held in 2028, third, it seems extremely unlikely, at least at this juncture, that Trump can win them. Right now, I think even with Republican gerrymandering efforts, Republicans are in for a shellacking in the midterms in no small part because the white Christian nationalist base is showing signs of splintering.[6]
One way or another, I think the chances of Trump winning a third term, by fair means or foul, are pretty slim. It’s still possible, but rather unlikely. It’s much more likely that the constitutional oligarchy, already in its death throes, collapses entirely. And that’s a problem regardless of whether Trump is the one on top.
[1] U.S. Const., Amend. XXII, §1.
[2] Amy B Wang, “Mike Johnson says he doesn’t see a ‘path’ to a third Trump term,” Washington Post, October 28, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/10/28/mike-johnson-trump-third-term/
[3] U.S. Const., Amend. XII.
[4] David Benfell, “The publicly absent Donald Trump,” Not Housebroken, October 10, 2025, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/the-publicly-absent-donald-trump
[5] David Benfell, “It’s an aconstitutional broligarchy now,” Not Housebroken, September 23, 2025, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/its-an-aconstitutional-broligarchy
[6] David Benfell, “Will ‘The Big Beautiful Bill’ crack Donald Trump’s white Christian nationalist monolith?” Not Housebroken, October 2, 2025, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/will-the-big-beautiful-bill-crack; David Benfell, “Will there be a surprise ending?” Not Housebroken, October 12, 2025, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/will-there-be-a-surprise-ending