See update for December 2, 2024, at end of post.
A couple times now, I have seen a suggestion that Donald Trump’s mostly execrable incoming administration[1] is more than an attempt to eviscerate several agencies, to put the U.S. even more firmly behind Binyamin Netanyahu, or advance the Project 2025 agenda. It is, supposedly, nothing short of an effort to dismember the United States.
It seems to me that there is a logical leap between all of the former and the latter. It’s partly filled but inadequately explained with the suggestion that it might spark a new Civil War. The trouble with the Civil War hypothesis is that one side has, by far, the most guns and, now, the U.S. military on its side.
This would more plausibly—which isn’t saying much—be something akin to Marjorie Taylor Greene’s suggestion of a national divorce,[2] enacted peacefully. But what we see, rather consistently, with the powers that be is an absolute insistence that state-level secessions wouldn’t solve any problems even where it would quite possibly benefit the politicians’ parties by adding U.S. Senate seats and altering the Electoral College balance.
I believe the state-level secessions, particularly in states like California, which could be broken up into several pieces, could solve a number of problems and that the politicians in charge are simply determined to preserve their empires. If this is indeed the case, then some sort of bogus rationalization for preserving the Union will surface: Never mind the extreme political polarization that prevents even incremental progress; breaking up the country will either fail to solve any problems or do something dreadful that has yet to be dreamed up. Because, really, the politicians at the federal level will want to preserve their empire just like the politicians at the state level want to preserve their empires.
And even if the country were to break up, who would run the liberal territories that secede? If your answer is the do-nothing Democrats whose first allegiance is to neoconservatism[3] and who so obviously prefer to sit in opposition where they can complain about the Republicans without ever having to actually accomplish anything, I’d have to say, loudly, no, thanks!
Frankly, Greene’s idea of a national divorce is one I used to advocate. But the complications of trying to negotiate a division of assets and liabilities—now at least partly on Trump’s terms—would likely torpedo the idea. White Christian nationalists, who blame liberals for “tax and spend” policies, would likely want to assign the lion’s share of the debt to seceding territories. Put mildly, this would be the messiest divorce ever.
It still might happen. Colin Woodard thinks it is inevitable.[4] And I still don’t honestly see an alternative, even if I think it unlikely it would happen along the lines that Woodard suggests.
And that, of course, assumes we even get to the point where we are seriously considering a national divorce. I just don’t think that’s happening.
Update, December 2, 2024: A follower on Mastodon, @GhostOnTheHalfShell, has pointed me to an article that suggests that I, along with most people, have entirely underestimated neoliberalism: This is apparently a project of the “Virginia School” (in parallel with the “Austrian School” of capitalist libertarianism and the “Chicago School” of Milton Friedman) which seeks to free the rich from any legal restrictions and any responsibility for anybody else whatsoever. It is anarchocapitalism on steroids, not merely failing to treat economic power over others on par with political power over others, but actually valorizing economic power over others: The destitute, in this light, deserve to be destitute and are deserving of no help whatsoever; anyone who is not fully self-supporting (at the expense of others) is to be so blamed as a subordinate class of humans and to be suspected of preying upon the rich by any means necessary. It derides feminism as ‘socialism.’[5]
This is a program that is already in progress, as neoliberalism, and which I think my follower suspects is Donald Trump’s agenda with that execrable incoming administration that seems meant to eviscerate the “administrative state.”[6] There is, however, one exception: Trump’s pick for Secretary of Labor, Lori Chavez-DeRem, a recognition that a lot of working class votes pushed Trump to victory, and a nominee lobbied for by the Teamsters.[7] It remains to be seen how much of an impact she can have.
[1] Mark Berman, “Trump says he will replace FBI Director Wray with loyalist Kash Patel,” Washington Post, November 30, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/30/trump-kash-patel-fbi-director/; Mark Berman and David Nakamura, “Pam Bondi, Trump’s AG pick, said ‘prosecutors will be prosecuted,’” Washington Post, November 23, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/11/23/pam-bondi-doj-attorney-general-trump-pick/; Abha Bhattarai, Jeff Stein, and Scott Dance, “Trump selects Howard Lutnick, Wall Street CEO, as commerce secretary,” Washington Post, November 19, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/11/19/howard-lutnick-trump-commerce-secretary/; Walter Bragman, “Everything You Need to Know About Donald Trump’s (Likely) FDA Pick,” Important Context, November 20, 2024, https://www.importantcontext.news/p/everything-you-need-to-know-about-cce; Dan Diamond, “Trump picks Dr. Oz to oversee Medicare, Medicaid and Affordable Care Act,” Washington Post, November 19, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/11/19/dr-oz-medicare-medicaid-obamacare-trump/; Dan Diamond, Rachel Roubein, and Frances Vinall, “Changes RFK Jr. could make as HHS secretary, from vaccines to raw milk,” Washington Post, November 15, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/11/15/rfk-jr-department-health-human-services-changes/; Ian Duncan, “Trump picks former congressman Sean Duffy to lead Transportation Dept.,” Washington Post, November 18, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/11/18/sean-duffy-transportation-secretary-nominee/; Josh Gerstein and Nahal Toosi, “Could Trump sideline government watchdogs? Some are already quitting,” Politico, November 25, 2024, https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/25/trump-inspectors-general-watchdogs-00191381; Evan Halper et al., “Trump picks fracking firm CEO Chris Wright to be energy secretary,” Washington Post, November 16, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/16/energy-secretary-trump-chris-wright/; Fatima Hussein, “Trump names Massad Boulos, campaign liaison and family relative, as a senior adviser on Middle East,” Associated Press, December 1, 2024, https://apnews.com/article/trump-boulos-mideast-michigan-arab-americans-israel-1c3a1a53c78682daf9011735cb37dbb1; David Klepper, Ellen Knickmeyer, and Edith M. Lederer, “Gabbard’s sympathetic views toward Russia cause alarm as Trump’s pick to lead intelligence services,” Associated Press, November 17, 2024, https://apnews.com/article/gabbard-trump-putin-intelligence-russia-syria-a798adaf9cd531a5d0c9329f7597f0f6; Michael Kranish, Josh Dawsey, and Jonathan O'Connell, “Defense pick Hegseth paid accuser but denies sexual assault, attorney says,” Washington Post, November 16, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/16/pete-hegseth-sexual-assault-accuser-paid/; Marianne LeVine, “Pam Bondi, Trump’s pick for attorney general, is a longtime loyalist,” Washington Post, November 21, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/21/pam-bondi-trump-attorney-general-florida/; Abby Livingston, “DOGE-Ball: Elon vs. The F-35,” Puck, November 30, 2024, https://puck.news/doge-ball-elon-vs-the-f-35/; Laura Meckler, “Trump taps transition co-chair Linda McMahon to be education secretary,” Washington Post, November 19, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2024/11/19/trump-education-secretary-linda-mcmahon/; Allison Neitzel, “How Dr. Oz Hyped Trump’s COVID Snake Oil,” Important Context, November 21, 2024, https://www.importantcontext.news/p/how-dr-oz-hyped-trumps-covid-snake; Caitlin Owens, “Trump taps Johns Hopkins professor Makary as FDA chief,” Axios, November 22, 2024, https://www.axios.com/2024/11/23/trump-fda-marty-makary; Danielle Paquette and Jonathan O'Connell, “Police records reveal new details about sexual assault allegation against Pete Hegseth,” Washington Post, November 21, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/21/pete-hegseth-monterey-police-report/; Martin Pengelly, “Trump’s Gorka pick met with outrage: he’s ‘as dangerous as he is unqualified,’” Guardian, November 27, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/27/trump-national-security-gorka; Hafiz Rashid, “Trump Team Is Having a Terrifying Debate on How to Invade Mexico,” New Republic, November 27, 2024, https://apple.news/AW86WkTV4QiKoASBybl8w5A; Qasim Rashid, “Trump Nominees Are Not Just A Joke — They Are Dangerous,” Let’s Address This, November 15, 2024, https://www.qasimrashid.com/p/trump-nominees-are-not-just-a-joke; Beth Reinhard and Abha Bhattarai, “Linda McMahon made a fortune with WWE. Wrestling scandals now shadow her rise,” Washington Post, November 19, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/19/linda-mcmahon-trump-administration-wwe-allegations/; Neal Rothschild, “Trump neuters the watchdogs,” Axios, November 30, 2024, https://www.axios.com/2024/11/30/trump-staff-investigation-fbi-doj; Melody Schreiber, “‘He is one of us!’: US anti-vaxxers rejoice at nomination of David Weldon for CDC,” Guardian, December 1, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/dec/01/antivaxxers-david-weldon-cdc-nomination; Deepa Shivaram, “Trump nominates Russ Vought for White House budget director once again,” National Public Radio, November 22, 2024, https://www.npr.org/2024/11/22/nx-s1-5193351/trump-russ-vought-omb-budget-director; Ishaan Tharoor, “Trump and the Israeli right resume their embrace,” Washington Post, November 15, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2024/11/15/trump-israel-right-wing/; Casey Tolan, Scott Glover, and Sara Murray, “Police report reveals new details from sexual assault allegation against Trump’s defense secretary nominee,” Cable News Network, November 21, 2024, https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/21/politics/pete-hegseth-police-report-defense-secretary-trump/index.html; Nick Paton Walsh, “Trump’s Ukraine envoy has a plan to end the war that Putin may revel in,” Cable News Network, November 29, 2024, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/29/europe/trump-new-ukraine-envoy-analysis-intl/index.html; Emily Zemler, “Pete Hegseth's Mom Calls Him ‘Abuser of Women’ in Released Email,” Esquire, November 30, 2024, https://apple.news/AuE1xwOjBRCO-owoAJrGyNQ
[2] Shannon Pettypiece, “Marjorie Taylor Greene calls for a 'national divorce' between liberal and conservative states,” NBC News, February 20, 2024, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/marjorie-taylor-greene-calls-national-divorce-liberal-conservative-sta-rcna71464
[3] David Benfell, “Get ready to fight, kids,” Not Housebroken, September 9, 2024, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/get-ready-to-fight-kids
[4] Colin Woodard, American Nations (New York: Penguin, 2011).
[5] Gil Duran, “How the 'Broligarchs' plan to use Trump,” Nerd Reich, November 25, 2024, https://www.thenerdreich.com/how-thebroligarchs-plan-to-use-trump/; Brooke Harrington, “What the Broligarchs Want From Trump,” Atlantic, November 24, 2024, https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/broligarchy-elon-musk-trump/680788/; Lynn Parramore, “How to Disguise Racism and Oligarchy: Use Economics,” Evonomics, n.d., https://evonomics.com/how-to-disguise-racism-and-oligarchy-use-the-language-of-economics/
[6] Jacqueline Alemany and Liz Goodwin, “Documents with damaging Gaetz testimony accessed in apparent breach,” Washington Post, November 19, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/19/gaetz-investigation-hack-evidence-senators/; Jacqueline Alemany, Liz Goodwin, and Perry Stein, “Two women testified that Matt Gaetz paid them for sex, lawyer says,” Washington Post, November 18, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/18/matt-gaetz-ethics-report-allegations/
Isaac Arnsdorf, Marianne LeVine, and Ashley Parker, “Trump pushes past sting of Gaetz’s exit with flurry of new picks,” Washington Post, November 22, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/23/trump-gaetz-withdrawal-loss-senate/; Mark Berman, “Trump says he will replace FBI Director Wray with loyalist Kash Patel,” Washington Post, November 30, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/30/trump-kash-patel-fbi-director/; Mark Berman and David Nakamura, “Pam Bondi, Trump’s AG pick, said ‘prosecutors will be prosecuted,’” Washington Post, November 23, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/11/23/pam-bondi-doj-attorney-general-trump-pick/; Abha Bhattarai, Jeff Stein, and Scott Dance, “Trump selects Howard Lutnick, Wall Street CEO, as commerce secretary,” Washington Post, November 19, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/11/19/howard-lutnick-trump-commerce-secretary/; Michelle Boorstein, “Huckabee pick as Israeli ambassador reflects long evangelical alliance,” Washington Post, December 2, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/12/02/evangelicals-israel-trump-huckabee/; Walter Bragman, “Everything You Need to Know About Donald Trump’s (Likely) FDA Pick,” Important Context, November 20, 2024, https://www.importantcontext.news/p/everything-you-need-to-know-about-cce; Desmond Butler, Lauren Weber, and Caitlin Gilbert, “Potential conflicts of interest may haunt Dr. Oz’s confirmation to run Medicare, Medicaid,” Washington Post, December 2, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/12/02/dr-oz-medicare-medicaid-ozempic-conflicts/; Bernd Debusmann, Jr., and Mike Wendling, “How would Trump’s promise of mass deportations of migrants work?” British Broadcasting Corporation, November 18, 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce9z0lm48ngo; Dan Diamond, “Trump picks Dr. Oz to oversee Medicare, Medicaid and Affordable Care Act,” Washington Post, November 19, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/11/19/dr-oz-medicare-medicaid-obamacare-trump/; Dan Diamond, Rachel Roubein, and Frances Vinall, “Changes RFK Jr. could make as HHS secretary, from vaccines to raw milk,” Washington Post, November 15, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/11/15/rfk-jr-department-health-human-services-changes/; Ian Duncan, “Trump picks former congressman Sean Duffy to lead Transportation Dept.,” Washington Post, November 18, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/11/18/sean-duffy-transportation-secretary-nominee/; Josh Gerstein and Nahal Toosi, “Could Trump sideline government watchdogs? Some are already quitting,” Politico, November 25, 2024, https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/25/trump-inspectors-general-watchdogs-00191381; Liz Goodwin et al., “Matt Gaetz attorney general confirmation was in doubt ahead of withdrawal,” Washington Post, November 21, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/11/21/gaetz-withdraws-attorney-general-ethics-investigation/; Stephen Groves, “Senators took down one Trump Cabinet pick. But the fight over their authority is just beginning,” Associated Press, November 25, 2024, https://apnews.com/article/trump-cabinet-senate-republicans-cee5cddaa714b8874db05356c6af2a04; Evan Halper et al., “Trump picks fracking firm CEO Chris Wright to be energy secretary,” Washington Post, November 16, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/16/energy-secretary-trump-chris-wright/; Fatima Hussein, “Trump names Massad Boulos, campaign liaison and family relative, as a senior adviser on Middle East,” Associated Press, December 1, 2024, https://apnews.com/article/trump-boulos-mideast-michigan-arab-americans-israel-1c3a1a53c78682daf9011735cb37dbb1; David Klepper, Ellen Knickmeyer, and Edith M. Lederer, “Gabbard’s sympathetic views toward Russia cause alarm as Trump’s pick to lead intelligence services,” Associated Press, November 17, 2024, https://apnews.com/article/gabbard-trump-putin-intelligence-russia-syria-a798adaf9cd531a5d0c9329f7597f0f6; Michael Kranish, Josh Dawsey, and Jonathan O'Connell, “Defense pick Hegseth paid accuser but denies sexual assault, attorney says,” Washington Post, November 16, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/16/pete-hegseth-sexual-assault-accuser-paid/; Marianne LeVine, “Pam Bondi, Trump’s pick for attorney general, is a longtime loyalist,” Washington Post, November 21, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/21/pam-bondi-trump-attorney-general-florida/; Abby Livingston, “DOGE-Ball: Elon vs. The F-35,” Puck, November 30, 2024, https://puck.news/doge-ball-elon-vs-the-f-35/; Laura Meckler, “Trump taps transition co-chair Linda McMahon to be education secretary,” Washington Post, November 19, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2024/11/19/trump-education-secretary-linda-mcmahon/; Allison Neitzel, “How Dr. Oz Hyped Trump’s COVID Snake Oil,” Important Context, November 21, 2024, https://www.importantcontext.news/p/how-dr-oz-hyped-trumps-covid-snake; Caitlin Owens, “Trump taps Johns Hopkins professor Makary as FDA chief,” Axios, November 22, 2024, https://www.axios.com/2024/11/23/trump-fda-marty-makary; Danielle Paquette and Jonathan O'Connell, “Police records reveal new details about sexual assault allegation against Pete Hegseth,” Washington Post, November 21, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/21/pete-hegseth-monterey-police-report/; Martin Pengelly, “Trump’s Gorka pick met with outrage: he’s ‘as dangerous as he is unqualified,’” Guardian, November 27, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/27/trump-national-security-gorka; Hafiz Rashid, “Trump Team Is Having a Terrifying Debate on How to Invade Mexico,” New Republic, November 27, 2024, https://apple.news/AW86WkTV4QiKoASBybl8w5A; Qasim Rashid, “Trump Nominees Are Not Just A Joke — They Are Dangerous,” Let’s Address This, November 15, 2024, https://www.qasimrashid.com/p/trump-nominees-are-not-just-a-joke; Beth Reinhard and Abha Bhattarai, “Linda McMahon made a fortune with WWE. Wrestling scandals now shadow her rise,” Washington Post, November 19, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/19/linda-mcmahon-trump-administration-wwe-allegations/; Neal Rothschild, “Trump neuters the watchdogs,” Axios, November 30, 2024, https://www.axios.com/2024/11/30/trump-staff-investigation-fbi-doj; Melody Schreiber, “‘He is one of us!’: US anti-vaxxers rejoice at nomination of David Weldon for CDC,” Guardian, December 1, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/dec/01/antivaxxers-david-weldon-cdc-nomination; Deepa Shivaram, “Trump nominates Russ Vought for White House budget director once again,” National Public Radio, November 22, 2024, https://www.npr.org/2024/11/22/nx-s1-5193351/trump-russ-vought-omb-budget-director; Ishaan Tharoor, “Trump and the Israeli right resume their embrace,” Washington Post, November 15, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2024/11/15/trump-israel-right-wing/; Casey Tolan, Scott Glover, and Sara Murray, “Police report reveals new details from sexual assault allegation against Trump’s defense secretary nominee,” Cable News Network, November 21, 2024, https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/21/politics/pete-hegseth-police-report-defense-secretary-trump/index.html; Nick Paton Walsh, “Trump’s Ukraine envoy has a plan to end the war that Putin may revel in,” Cable News Network, November 29, 2024, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/29/europe/trump-new-ukraine-envoy-analysis-intl/index.html; Michael Wilner and Max Greenwood, “Matt Gaetz withdraws as Trump’s attorney general pick amid sexual misconduct allegations, Sacramento Bee, November 21, 2024, https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/article295925304.html; Emily Zemler, “Pete Hegseth's Mom Calls Him ‘Abuser of Women’ in Released Email,” Esquire, November 30, 2024, https://apple.news/AuE1xwOjBRCO-owoAJrGyNQ
[7] Lauren Kaori Gurley, “Trump picks Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer of Oregon for labor secretary,” Washington Post, November 22, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/11/22/lori-chavez-deremer-labor-secretary-trump/