The U.S. political system has been transitioning to an aconstitutional broligarchy,^[2] a system in which the very wealthy rule and are effectively above the law.^[3] The quest for such a system is one major reason high technology overlords have supported Donald Trump. And the Lütke-Thor scheme would be a step, along with the Supreme Court’s rulings protecting bribes (campaign donations) and the ensuing corruption as ‘free speech,’ toward formalizing such a system.

Tax breaks are among the fruits of that corruption and, curiously for those who claim this voting system would be ‘fair’ “‘representation’ for those who ‘foot the bill’ through taxation,”^[4] these would-be super-voters often pay little or no taxes at all and therefore are not in fact currently ‘footing the bill.’

The Lütke-Thor scheme would reinforce the notion that wealth implies intelligence, seen so often with the media attention given to figures like Bill Gates and Elon Musk. It would imply that the wealthy are deserving because they ‘earn’ their wealth through ‘hard work’ and ‘merit,’ when in fact it is well known among social scientists that wealth is very often inherited.

The Fortune article notes that “[t]he proposal would invert the founding Ameri[kkk]an principle of ‘no taxation without representation’ into something closer to ‘no representation without taxation’—and specifically, high taxation” but this assumes that the high earnings would in fact be taxed, which would mean high earners would have to give up their precious tax breaks.

We have to wonder why the rich would want such a voting advantage, which I suspect might still be negligible against the votes of the many in the sub-$100,000 bracket, when they already exert effective control of the political system through their money, er um, ‘free speech.’

Finally, in order to preserve anonymity, the Lütke-Thor scheme would require 1) super-voters to cast separate ballots for each of their votes so the ballots could not be recognized through any marking betraying a heavier weighting, or 2) that super-voters record their votes through distinct, possibly less convenient, and certainly more expensive precincts for each tier of super-voting.

That none of this seems to have occurred to Lütke or Thor would seem to bely their claim to merit. Christopher Hayes is unlikely to be surprised.^[5]

^[1] Nick Lichtenberg, “Why did a $154 billion CEO just endorse stripping most Americans of voting rights—and taking us back to the 19th century?” Fortune, July 27, 2026, https://apple.news/AizP7tY16SaqY8elv8nUHoQ

^[2] David Benfell, “It’s an aconstitutional broligarchy now,” Not Housebroken, September 23, 2025,

Not Housebroken

It’s an aconstitutional broligarchy now

Two stories underscore the U.S. transition from a constitutional oligarchy[1] to a tyrannical aconstitutional broligarchy.[2…

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10 months ago · 1 like · David Benfell, Ph.D.

^[3] Gil Duran, “How the ‘Broligarchs’ plan to use Trump,” Nerd Reich, November 25, 2024, https://www.thenerdreich.com/how-thebroligarchs-plan-to-use-trump/; Brooke Harrington, “What the Broligarchs Want From Trump,” Atlantic, November 24, 2024, https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/broligarchy-elon-musk-trump/680788/; Lynn Parramore, “How to Disguise Racism and Oligarchy: Use Economics,” Evonomics, n.d., https://evonomics.com/how-to-disguise-racism-and-oligarchy-use-the-language-of-economics/

^[4] Nick Lichtenberg, “Why did a $154 billion CEO just endorse stripping most Americans of voting rights—and taking us back to the 19th century?” Fortune, July 27, 2026, https://apple.news/AizP7tY16SaqY8elv8nUHoQ

^[5] Christopher Hayes, Twilight of the Elites (New York: Crown, 2012).

Apparently, all this is more than a little hysterical and a wider view is rich with irony. First, Stephen Zunes puts the number of migrants at 2,000.[3] (Spain has said that 48,000 migrants had returned to Morocco.[4]) Zunes, who strenuously objects to Morocco’s occupation of the Western Sahara, focuses on Ceuta’s history as a Spanish (formerly Portuguese) colony in Africa, writing that “[t]he only reason there’s an EU border there at all isn’t geography — it’s because a European empire took a piece of Africa and never gave it back. And now they’re mad that Africans keep showing up to it.”[5]

Ceuta’s population, apparently, consists largely of Muslim Africans.[6] Robert Terrell, a former professor of mine, would surely point out that the E.U. response is hypocritical, racist, and Islamophobic; that at least some of the European countries complaining about the influx have more than a little imperial history of their own, and therefore that they are complaining about Spain’s imperial problems when they have such problems of their own. And he would wonder—rather harshly—what their response would be if the migrants were white and Christian. And I would have to agree. Certainly, we see this sort of bigotry against migrants among white Christian nationalists in the U.S. and their right-wing compatriots around the world.

At bottom, this all about bigotry against other human beings over entirely superficial differences. I cannot criticize it more harshly. But at a fundamental level, this is what borders are about and it serves the elites who seek to preserve their dominions over us by reinforcing these distinctions.

[1] Sofia Ferreira Santos and Sarah Rainsford, “Spain’s PM blames traffickers after 60,000 migrants reach Ceuta from Morocco,” British Broadcasting Corporation, July 31, 2026, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2kp639yx4o

[2] Tinshui Yeung, “Spain attacks ‘selfish’ response of some EU countries to Ceuta migrant crossings,” British Broadcasting Corporation, August 1, 2026, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2v91xn1z9o

[3] Stephen Zunes, “July 31, 2026 (Friday),” August 1, 2026,

Stephen Zunes

July 31, 2026 (Friday)

Select Facebook posts…

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2 days ago

[4] Sofia Ferreira Santos and Sarah Rainsford, “Spain’s PM blames traffickers after 60,000 migrants reach Ceuta from Morocco,” British Broadcasting Corporation, July 31, 2026, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2kp639yx4o

[5] Stephen Zunes, “July 31, 2026 (Friday),” August 1, 2026,

Stephen Zunes

July 31, 2026 (Friday)

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2 days ago

[6] Stephen Zunes, “July 31, 2026 (Friday),” August 1, 2026,

Stephen Zunes

July 31, 2026 (Friday)

Select Facebook posts…

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2 days ago

Meanwhile, the Iranian regime has proven willing to suffer much more pain that the U.S. anticipated and shows no sign of compromising, let alone capitulating, on its demands.^[3]

Of course, toxically masculine Trump can admit none of this, even to himself. Failure is weakness. Weakness is intolerably shameful. So, like Vladimir Putin, who shares these deficiencies, in his war on Ukraine, the U.S. war on Iran shows no sign of resolution.

If indeed the pause (for two days) in strikes and counterstrikes is due to an exhaustion of munitions,^[4] this may be the best we can hope for—and it might last only as long as it takes for the U.S. to rearm.^[5]

^[1] Michael Froman, “How Does the Iran War End?” Council on Foreign Relations, July 24, 2026, https://www.cfr.org/articles/how-does-the-iran-war-end; Darius Radzius, “Pentagon Rushes to Buy 10,000 Missiles as Iran Has Depleted Stockpiles,” Military.com, May 13, 2026, https://www.military.com/pentagon-rushes-to-buy-10000-cheap-missiles-due-to-iran-war; Yashraj Sharma, “Why has the US halted its bombing of Iran?” Al Jazeera, July 27, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/27/why-has-the-us-halted-its-bombing-of-iran; Patrick Tucker, “Hegseth’s conflicting statements, evasions drain lawmakers’ patience, support,” Defense One, July 22, 2026, https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2026/07/hegseths-conflicting-statements-evasions-drain-lawmakers-patience-support/414955/

^[2] Nick Turse, “‘Cover-Up’ Unravels as Pentagon Admits Nearly 100 Injured in Iran Strikes,” Intercept, July 21, 2026, https://theintercept.com/2026/07/21/iran-war-pentagon-casualties-injuries/

^[3] Michael Froman, “How Does the Iran War End?” Council on Foreign Relations, July 24, 2026, https://www.cfr.org/articles/how-does-the-iran-war-end

^[4] Yashraj Sharma, “Why has the US halted its bombing of Iran?” Al Jazeera, July 27, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/27/why-has-the-us-halted-its-bombing-of-iran

^[5] Darius Radzius, “Pentagon Rushes to Buy 10,000 Missiles as Iran Has Depleted Stockpiles,” Military.com, May 13, 2026, https://www.military.com/pentagon-rushes-to-buy-10000-cheap-missiles-due-to-iran-war

For years now, I’ve heard complaints about today’s kids, that they don’t take work seriously, showing up when they want. In my latest pathetic excuse for employment, I’m seeing far too many examples of this to dismiss as any sort of exceptions to the rule.

Of course, the rejoinder lies within my own claim. It’s a crappy job I do under often brutal conditions for nowhere near enough money, appreciation, or respect. I do it because I haven’t been able to find anything better. The kids I’m seeing might still be living with their parents and might not need the job like I do. If I had the choice, I’d retire—I’m certainly old enough—and not do the job either.

So there’s a lot of truth in Jason Miciak’s column criticizing White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt’s hypocrisy in blasting the left for what really amounts to a deprivation of the privileges afforded many in previous generations. Miciak offers a fantastic rebuttal of the conservative “free stuff” trope, pointing out that few of today’s jobs offer any meaningful prospect of a decent living, let alone retirement, while Leavitt herself benefits from her family’s wealth and her marriage to a man who is 30 years older.[1]

I’m a boomer, born during the Dwight D. Eisenhower presidency. I’ve worked hard all my life. I have a Ph.D. And I still have a crappy job, that relies on brawn rather than brain, at an age when I should be able to retire. I’m certainly not the one to tell kids their assessments of their economic prospects are wrong. (And don’t even get me started on what they likely face with the climate crisis.)

I remember hearing about the generation gap when I was a kid. Then, as now, elders sniffed that the kids were/are ungrateful and indolent. And then, as now, it didn’t mean that the kids were/are wrong.

[1] Jason Miciak, “Karoline Leavitt’s loose lips just handed the left a bomb to blow up the GOP,” Raw Story, July 15, 2026, https://www.rawstory.com/raw-investigates/karoline-leavitt-communists/

First, it was Democratic Socialists Darializa Avila Chevalier, Claire Valdez, and Brad Lander, all endorsed by Democratic Socialist New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, winning their contests as the city’s “left-leaning voters proved once again that they are done with the Democratic establishment as they backed every Mamdani endorsement to the hilt.”^[4] Okay, some folks hoped, that’s just one city. Then Melat Kiros, another Democratic Socialist, won her primary in Colorado. Progressives did well generally as voters again rejected the establishment, its money, its complicity with Donald Trump, and the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.^[5]

Something similar had also happened in Maine with Graham Platner. But Platner is now under pressure to withdraw after an allegation of what sounds an awful lot like rape.^[6] State Democratic Party officials are scrambling to put together a process to select a replacement candidate but “Platner’s team is trying ‘to put their thumb on the scale of what this process looks like.’” The officials deny that Platner will have any role,^[7] but in his primary, he won over 70 percent of the vote and, surely, those voters deserve a say.^[8] Meanwhile, those officials seem to be doing their work in a notorious “smoke-filled room,” which shouldn’t put anyone’s mind at ease.

Whatever the outcome in Maine, it is apparent that progressives are accomplishing something I didn’t expect to see in my lifetime, even as the Democratic Party establishment, as it has done for decades, fights them tooth and nail.

The Democratic Party establishment is not noted for listening to voters. I remember looking at their 2004 presidential campaign platform and noticing the resemblance to Republican positions. I remember when voters elected Democrats to control of Congress in 2006 and Barack Obama to the presidency in 2008 with a mandate to get us out of the Iraq War, a mandate that went unfulfilled. I remember failures on student loans, minimum wage, white supremacist gangster (so-called “police”) reform, healthcare, the social safety net, voting rights, abortion, and the climate crisis. All these are planks the Democrats run on but absolutely refuse to deliver on. (And no, I’m not even a little bit interested in their excuses.) And I remember when the Democrats did everything possible to defeat Bernie Sanders’ run for the presidential nomination even as it was clear he was a stronger candidate than Hillary Clinton.

If there’s one thing the Democratic Party establishment is more determined to do than sit in opposition, it’s to uphold the neoconservative and neoliberal consensus. Which means more war and the rich get richer. And the people be damned.

^[1] Alex Roarty et al., “Chuck Schumer Hits His Limit,” News Of The United States, July 1, 2026, https://www.notus.org/democrats/chuck-schumer-dscc-senate-primaries

^[2] David Benfell, “We have to take care of people,” Not Housebroken, June 24, 2026, https://www.disunitedstates.org/p/we-have-to-take-care-of-people

^[3] Alex Roarty et al., “Chuck Schumer Hits His Limit,” News Of The United States, July 1, 2026, https://www.notus.org/democrats/chuck-schumer-dscc-senate-primaries

^[4] Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns, “The new king of New York,” Politico, June 24, 2026, https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2026/06/24/the-new-king-of-new-york-00973348

^[5] Nick Coltrain and Seth Klamann, “Five takeaways in Colorado primaries as DSA candidate ousts congresswoman, Democrats reject senator, big money falters,” Denver Post, July 1, 2026, https://www.denverpost.com/2026/07/01/colorado-primary-election-results-governor-melat-kiros/

^[6] Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns, “The dam breaks on Platner,” Politico, July 7, 2026, https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2026/07/07/the-dam-breaks-on-platner-00988487

^[7] Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns, “Inside the battle for Maine,” Politico, July 8, 2026, 

^[8] Andrew Prokop, “What could Democrats have done differently about Graham Platner?” Vox, July 7, 2026, https://www.vox.com/politics/494565/graham-platner-allegations-assault-withdrawing-dropping-out

Many years later, I visited Oregon, driving along U.S. Highway 101, and was amazed by the scenery as I drove along the tree-lined road. I had been thinking I needed to get out of California and was exploring southwest Oregon.

Then I happened to look to the side, through those trees. I guessed about 50 feet through, the scenery opened up onto clearcut forests. The stumps had just been left there with no visible attempt whatsoever at reforestation.

It was very clear to me, driving further, that I wasn’t in California anymore. I was in a very conservative area, angrier than anything I had—at that time—seen in California.

More faintly, I recall that the spotted owls had lost the fight. And environmentalists had alienated the working class.

Now, it’s hard to see how you preserve a lumberjack’s livelihood by cutting down all the trees and not replanting them—and I did see further along that trip, as I turned inland along a river whose name I don’t remember, that some areas had been replanted. But of course, the ecosystem never really recovers. It is forever altered.

To this day, some environmentalists have failed to learn the lesson. The trees were still cut down. The local ecosystems are still forever altered. And now it would seem likely that a lot of lumberjacks are out of work anyway.

Neoliberals, Democrat and Republican alike, repeated and compounded the environmentalists’ mistake, thus leading more or less directly to the rise of Donald Trump. We’re still relying on fossil fuels, even as with Trump’s utterly stupid, utterly failed war on Iran, a significant portion of the world’s supply has been cut off. Those fossil fuels will still eventually run out. Politicians enabled and negotiated a race to the bottom in wages, environmental protections, and labor protections, in the name of ‘competitive advantage,’ that a lot of U.S. workers lost.

But a lot of Trump-supporters are toxic men recklessly driving pickup trucks rigged to put out dark black smoke (“rolling coal”) that surely isn’t good to breathe, especially when they they see a less environmentally hostile vehicle.

It’s not just in the U.S. Hard right-wing anti-immigration political parties seem to have been on the rise just about everywhere, even in some of the places where extreme poverty and extreme violence drive people toward western economies where people only see the “pull factors” that attract people to richer countries, not the “push factors” that drive them away from home.

Keir Starmer just had to resign as prime minister of the U.K. He lost because so-called “centrism,” really still conservatism, has failed to deliver improvements in declining living standards.^[1] In New York City, three Democratic Socialist politicians just beat out so-called “centrist” Democrats in a primary election marked by fury at the establishment’s failure to improve declining living standards.^[2] And whatever their political persuasion, a lot of people are furious that Trump’s utterly stupid, utterly failed war on Iran has raised fuel and grocery prices,^[3] which isn’t helping to raise declining living standards either.

A lot of powerful folks still aren’t learning the lesson that you have to take care of people. They just can’t get past the stupidity of making the rich richer at everyone else’s expense. They refuse to understand that if you want to control immigration, you have to do something about the conditions that drive people away from home. They seemingly buy into Ayn Rand’s disdain for anyone who isn’t rich.^[4]

It is certainly true that New York City is not the rest of the U.S.,^[5] just as it is true that Manchester, where the mayor was Andy Burnham, who now seems headed for a coronation as Starmer’s successor, isn’t the rest of the U.K. But it is also apparent that populist anger, whether on the right or the left, will not dissipate without an improvement in declining living standards.

And unless the elite wake up to this reality, the establishment they are so desperate to uphold will look more and more like those clearcut forests I saw in Oregon.

^[1] Zack Beauchamp, “The fall of Britain’s prime minister is a warning for America,” Vox, June 23, 2026, https://www.vox.com/politics/492756/keir-starmer-resigns-democrats

^[2] Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns, “The new king of New York,” Politico, June 24, 2026, https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2026/06/24/the-new-king-of-new-york-00973348

^[3] Aaron Blake, “The scale of Trump’s political blunder in Iran is coming into focus,” Cable News Network, June 22, 2026, https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/22/politics/trump-iran-deal-poll

^[4] Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged (1957; repr., New York: Plume, 1999).

^[5] Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns, “The new king of New York,” Politico, June 24, 2026, https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2026/06/24/the-new-king-of-new-york-00973348

A money quote if ever I saw it: “The [Donald Trump] administration is fighting hard to persuade the American public and American politicians that this [memorandum of understanding declaring  a 60-day ceasefire in the war with Iran] is not a defeat for the United States.”^[1] But there is no regime change, no agreement on Iranian proxy militias (e.g., Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis), and no substantial agreement on Iran’s nuclear program beyond that they will not develop nuclear weapons, which they have long insisted they have no intention of doing. There is to be a $300 billion fund to reconstruct Iran and a lifting of all sanctions against Iran, Iran is to retain joint control with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. is to withdraw its naval blockade and unfreeze frozen Iranian funds.^[2] Indeed, it does very much appear “[t]he agreement is a record of US failure. People will see it and judge.”^[3]

Meanwhile, Binyamin Netanyahu is trying to declare victory while claiming not to know the details of the agreement^[4] in the face of ferocious domestic criticism^[5] that will likely compel him to undermine or sabotage the deal. That criticism is echoed on this side of the Atlantic as well as it is clear that the war achieved nothing.^[6]

This was an utterly stupid war from the start. It is now even more clearly a failed war, which is kind of how the use of force seems often to go: Hubris rather than intellect drives an attack, leading to disaster, as we see in the U.S. war on Vietnam, the Soviet Union’s war on Afghanistan, the U.S. wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and Russia’s war on Ukraine, and the powers that be never learn an obvious lesson.

Update, June 20, 2026: Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire which Israel promptly violated.^[7] Iran had insisted on including Lebanon in the ceasefire and holding the U.S. responsible for ensuring Israeli compliance.^[8] The talks aimed toward a permanent peace are accordingly on hold.^[9]

Israel and Hezbollah subsequently “renewed” their ceasefire, but it appears the fighting has continued.^[10] All of which suggests that Donald Trump either cannot or will not exert the control over Israel that Iran expects under the memorandum of understanding.^[11]

Update, June 21, 2026: Owing to continued fighting in Lebanon, Iran claims—and the U.S. denies—it is again closing the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. claims to be in control of the strait. Nonetheless, talks between Iran and the U.S. are expected to begin today (June 21).^[12]

^[1] Mike Hanna, quoted in Al Jazeera, “Diplomat confirms that US and Iran have signed MoU electronically,” June 17, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/17/iran-confirms-that-mou-has-been-signed-electronically-by-both-sides

^[2] Al Jazeera, “Diplomat confirms that US and Iran have signed MoU electronically,” June 17, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/17/iran-confirms-that-mou-has-been-signed-electronically-by-both-sides; Al Jazeera, “Read the US account of unreleased 14-point Iran ceasefire memorandum,” June 17, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/17/read-the-us-account-of-unreleased-14-point-iran-ceasefire-memorandum

^[3] Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, quoted in Al Jazeera, “Diplomat confirms that US and Iran have signed MoU electronically,” June 17, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/17/iran-confirms-that-mou-has-been-signed-electronically-by-both-sides

^[4] Nava Freiberg and Lazar Berman, “Netanyahu distances himself but avoids criticizing US-Iran deal, claims war’s main goals have been achieved,” Times of Israel, June 16, 2026, https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-avoids-criticizing-us-iran-deal-claims-wars-main-goals-have-been-achieved/

^[5] Simon Speakman Cordall, “Israel went to war with Iran, but Netanyahu may be the loser,” Al Jazeera, June 16, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/16/israel-went-to-war-with-iran-netanyahu-may-be-loser; Reuters, “‘Terrible’ US-Iran deal could deepen Netanyahu’s rift with Trump,” South China Morning Post, June 16, 2026, https://www.scmp.com/news/world/middle-east/article/3357225/terrible-us-iran-deal-could-deepen-netanyahus-rift-trump; Times of Israel, “Ministers say Israel won’t be bound by Iran deal, as opposition castigates Netanyahu’s ‘absolute failure,’” June 15, 2026, https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-vows-to-stay-in-south-lebanon-if-iran-strikes-well-hit-it-with-full-force/; Lucy Williamson, “Iran deal presents political nightmare for Netanyahu,” British Broadcasting Corporation, June 16, 2026, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj4gnqw8j52o

^[6] Julia Ioffe, “Trump’s Surrender at Versailles,” Puck, June 18, 2026, https://puck.news/all-of-washington-is-furious-at-trumps-iran-deal/

^[7] Al Jazeera, “Israel continues attacks on Lebanon despite agreeing to ceasefire,” June 19, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/19/israel-continues-attacks-on-lebanon-despite-agreeing-to-ceasefire

^[8] Al Jazeera, “Read the US account of unreleased 14-point Iran ceasefire memorandum,” June 17, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/17/read-the-us-account-of-unreleased-14-point-iran-ceasefire-memorandum

^[9] Al Jazeera, “Israel continues attacks on Lebanon despite agreeing to ceasefire,” June 19, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/19/israel-continues-attacks-on-lebanon-despite-agreeing-to-ceasefire

^[10] Jason Burke and William Christou, “Israel and Hezbollah renew ceasefire after deadly flareup disrupts opening of Iran talks,” Guardian, June 20, 2026, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/19/israel-hezbollah-renew-ceasefire-lebanon-us-iran-agreement

^[11] Al Jazeera, “Read the US account of unreleased 14-point Iran ceasefire memorandum,” June 17, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/17/read-the-us-account-of-unreleased-14-point-iran-ceasefire-memorandum

^[12] Al Jazeera, “US-Iran talks to kick off Sunday in Switzerland, says Pakistan,” June 20, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/20/us-iran-talks-to-kick-off-sunday-in-switzerland-says; France 24, “Iran says closed Strait of Hormuz as US deal hits obstacle ahead of Swiss talks,” June 20, 2026, https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260620-iran-says-closed-strait-of-hormuz-as-us-deal-hits-obstacle-ahead-of-swiss-talks

Politico reports, “These strategically placed assets set the table for military action, from a capture of Havana’s leadership much like the seizure of former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, to a series of precision strikes. And they open the possibility that the U.S. throws itself into the third international conflict of the Trump administration.

“Cuba is ‘in a lot of trouble,’ Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday at a full Cabinet meeting. ‘Having a failed state 90 miles from our shores is a threat to the national security of the United States.’”^[3]

It’s worth noting that Cuba is “failing” in significant part due to a blockade imposed by the U.S. As the country’s president put it, “Cuba is not a failed state. Cuba is a besieged state. Cuba is a state facing multidimensional aggression: economic warfare, an intensified blockade and an energy blockade.”^[4] The Associated Press explains that “[t]he oil embargo imposed by Trump worsened the already harsh conditions brought on by an economic crisis that has lasted for five years, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and a tightening of U.S. sanctions aimed at pressuring for a change in the island’s political model.”^[5]

I am a little bit—only a little bit—reminded of Lawrence James’ assessment of historical Britain’s position toward Ireland: He argued that Ireland was too near for the British to ignore.^[6] But there is a certain vitriol that U.S. politicians hold for Cuba that I am in no position to compare to that of the British for Ireland. And this vitriol, which I find difficult to fathom, has been absorbed into a larger pattern of vitriol, which I absolutely condemn, characteristic of white Christian nationalism.

Cuba already faces a humanitarian crisis due to the U.S. blockade.^[7] Military action of any kind can only make it worse.

^[1] Julian Borger, “‘They have screwed each other pretty badly’: tensions emerge in Netanyahu-Trump alliance,” Guardian, May 9, 2026, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/09/tensions-emerge-bejamin-netanyahu-donald-trump-alliance; Dan Rather, “Has Trump Lost His War?” Steady, May 26, 2026, https://steady.substack.com/p/has-trump-lost-his-war; Jeffrey D. Sachs and Sybil Fares, “The war on Iran will likely end in American retreat,” Al Jazeera, May 9, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/5/9/the-war-on-iran-will-likely-end-in-american-retreat

^[2] Paul McLeary, “Pentagon puts building blocks in place for Cuba invasion,” Politico, May 27, 2026, https://www.politico.com/news/2026/05/27/cuba-us-military-attack-00938740

^[3] Paul McLeary, “Pentagon puts building blocks in place for Cuba invasion,” Politico, May 27, 2026, https://www.politico.com/news/2026/05/27/cuba-us-military-attack-00938740

^[4] Miguel Díaz-Canel, quoted in Andrea Rodríguez, “Cuba’s president says island does not wish for US aggression but ready to fight if needed,” Associated Press, April 16, 2026, https://apnews.com/article/cuba-president-diaz-canel-fight-us-trump-98317390837f6aa8f560ea157b169c2b

^[5] Andrea Rodríguez, “Cuba’s president says island does not wish for US aggression but ready to fight if needed,” Associated Press, April 16, 2026, https://apnews.com/article/cuba-president-diaz-canel-fight-us-trump-98317390837f6aa8f560ea157b169c2b

^[6] Lawrence James, The Rise and Fall of the British Empire (New York, St. Martin’s Griffin, 1994).

^[7] Andrea Rodríguez, “Cuba’s president says island does not wish for US aggression but ready to fight if needed,” Associated Press, April 16, 2026, https://apnews.com/article/cuba-president-diaz-canel-fight-us-trump-98317390837f6aa8f560ea157b169c2b

Is the war with Iran about to get hot again?

According to Raw Story, J. D. Vance’s “unplanned return [to the White House] was just one piece of a larger set of events that sent X into overdrive on Friday [May 22]. Conservative content creator Matt Van Swol stitched several of them together in a single post that quickly went viral.

“‘Just in the last 24 hours: [Donald] Trump skips his own son's wedding. JD Vance + Hegseth race back to the White House. Chief of Staff posting videos of B-2 bombers,’ Van Swol wrote. ‘Something MASSIVE must be about to happen. What is going on??!!!!’

“The reference to B-2 bombers, the U.S. military's stealth long-range strategic platform historically associated with strikes on fortified targets, added another layer to the online chatter. So did the fact that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was reportedly returning to the White House at the same time as the VP.”^[1]

For his part, Trump claims “[a]n Agreement [with Iran] has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the various other Countries, as listed. Separately, I had a call with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel, which, likewise, went very well. Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly. In addition to many other elements of the Agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened.”^[2] Of course, Trump has said this many times before, often to Iranian denials, and without such an agreement coming to fruition.

On the other hand, the clues Van Swol cite seem to me to suggest terrible operational security. Of course, this administration is much more notable for hubris and stupidity than it is intelligence.

Those clues could also suggest a sudden decision—or perhaps a sudden reversal of a previously made decision. But the Raw Story article was published at 3:30 pm on May 23^rd.^[3] Trump posted at 4:30 pm on the same day.^[4]  (Both times are likely Eastern.) This is the reverse of a timeline indicating a war about to get hot again. The magnitude of the clues that Van Swol cites, however, lead me to strongly suspect that any claim of a deal is yet again meant to pretend peace prior to an attack.

Update, May 24, 2026: Yves Smith, among others, too, have doubts about Donald Trump’s claim of an agreement: “First, Trump depicts the listed countries, including Turkiye, Pakistan, and Jordan as parties to the deal, meaning signatories. That can’t be right. Plus multiparty deals are extremely time-consuming to consummate. Second, Israel is clearly NOT a party to the deal. So how can this possibly get done? Iran has insisted and will continue to insist on a cessation of hostilities on all fronts, which includes Lebanon. Trump is not even pretending he has Israel’s participation or consent.

“The US could not get Ukraine to bend to its wishes. Think Trump can get the much more politically and media-connected Israel to do so? Recall additionally that some YouTubers are saying (I confess to not independently verifying) that Israel now has more missiles in theater than the US. And it can also engage in terrorism, likely assassinating more key Iranian figures.”^[5]

Specifically, it seems that Iran has not agreed to re-open the Strait of Hormuz. And no one is talking about Iran’s nuclear program.^[6]

Update, May 25, 2026: Supposedly the deal between the U.S. and Iran would extend the ceasefire for 60 days, re-open the Strait of Hormuz, allow Iran to sell its oil, and unfreeze Iranian funds. Negotiations are to be held on Iran’s nuclear program. Further, Israel’s war on Hezbollah in Lebanon would end.^[7] Hardline Republicans (likely neoconservatives) are strongly opposing the deal but Donald Trump is also under pressure from white Christian nationalists in his base (who opposed the war from the outset) and on the economy (which might doom Republicans in the upcoming midterm elections).^[8]

^[1] David McAfee, “Rumors fly as Vance makes ‘unplanned’ U-turn to White House: ‘Something massive,’” Raw Story, May 23, 2026, https://www.rawstory.com/rumors-jd-vance-fly-iran/

^[2] Donald J. Trump, “I am in the Oval Office . . .,” Truth Social, May 23, 2026, https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116625784011805994

^[3] David McAfee, “Rumors fly as Vance makes ‘unplanned’ U-turn to White House: ‘Something massive,’” Raw Story, May 23, 2026, https://www.rawstory.com/rumors-jd-vance-fly-iran/

^[4] Donald J. Trump, “I am in the Oval Office . . .,” Truth Social, May 23, 2026, https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116625784011805994

^[5] Yves Smith [Susan Webber], “Iran War: Trump Announces Iran Deal with Iran Already Disputing His Claims; Hawk Heads Exploding; Even if Pact Concluded, Strait of Hormuz Traffic Expected to Reach Only 40% of Old Level by Year End,” Naked Capitalism, May 24, 2026, https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/05/iran-war-trump-announces-iran-deal-with-iran-already-disputing-his-claims-hawk-heads-exploding-even-if-pact-concluded-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-expected-to-reach-only-40-of-old-level-by-year-end.html

^[6] Yves Smith [Susan Webber], “Iran War: Trump Announces Iran Deal with Iran Already Disputing His Claims; Hawk Heads Exploding; Even if Pact Concluded, Strait of Hormuz Traffic Expected to Reach Only 40% of Old Level by Year End,” Naked Capitalism, May 24, 2026, https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/05/iran-war-trump-announces-iran-deal-with-iran-already-disputing-his-claims-hawk-heads-exploding-even-if-pact-concluded-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-expected-to-reach-only-40-of-old-level-by-year-end.html

^[7] Barak Ravid, “What's inside the Iran deal Trump is close to signing,” Axios, May 23, 2026, https://www.axios.com/2026/05/24/iran-deal-strait-hormuz-sanctions-nuclear

^[8] Eli Okun, “A turning point in the war?” Politico, May 24, 2026, https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2026/05/24/a-turning-point-in-the-war-00935158

This is something, as Hamby, who was in the ballroom at the time of the attempt, fails to fully acknowledge, of a false equivalence. Right-wing violence, including the Oklahoma City bombing, and attacks on abortion providers are longstanding. Even the atrocities that have been committed against the right by the government had something to do with the quantities of arms those groups had accumulated.

Hamby at least sticks to decrying political violence. But the right has indeed moved awfully swiftly to citing the shooting as justification for Trump’s ballroom and funding for the Department of Homeland Security which has been tied up in Congress due to Immigration and Customs Enforcement [ICE] and Customs and Border Protection [CBP] violence not just against unauthorized migrants but even U.S. citizens.^[2] Hamby neglects to count that as political violence.

The simple truth is that Donald Trump declared war on U.S. cities^[3] —on the U.S. people. He sent in the National Guard. He sent in ICE and CBP. He excused the violence these forces committed. And his rhetoric against “left wing radicals” has been persistent.

Political violence, or the threat thereof, is a political tool. Trump has wielded it for political advantage. He lives by the sword. He has not yet died by it. But we should not be surprised if he does.

^[1] Peter Hamby, “An American Sickness,” Puck, April 27, 2026, https://puck.news/how-the-left-lost-the-moral-high-ground-on-political-violence/

^[2] Joshua Barajas, “Shooting deaths climb in Trump's mass deportation effort,” Public Broadcasting System, January 29, 2026, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/a-look-at-shootings-by-federal-immigration-officers; Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns and Adam Wren, “‘Can this really be happening? Again?’” Politico, April 26, 2026, https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2026/04/26/can-this-really-be-happening-again-00892125; Ximena Bustillo and Michel Martin, “Violent incidents involving ICE raise questions about their training and use of force,” National Public Radio, January 16, 2026, https://www.npr.org/2026/01/16/nx-s1-5675286/violent-incidents-involving-ice-raise-questions-about-their-training-and-use-of-force; Colleen Slevin and Moran Lee, “CBP officer charged with assault over treatment of protester outside Colorado ICE facility,” Public Broadcasting System, April 22, 2026, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/cbp-officer-charged-with-assault-over-treatment-of-protester-outside-colorado-ice-facility

^[3] David Benfell, “What if this is all out war?” Not Housebroken, October 6, 2025, https://www.disunitedstates.org/p/what-if-this-is-all-out-war

But it seems there is an end even for black holes as Hawking radiation ever so slowly bleeds away the matter they contain.^[1] And such seems to be happening albeit much more dramatically for the relatively low mass black hole of Donald Trump.

First, his war on migrants was a war on cities, too much even for many who support mass deportation. Second, as the Jeffrey Epstein saga drags on, it is ever more apparent that the Trump administration has something, perhaps a lot, to hide. Third, apparently at Binyamin Netanyahu’s behest, he launched and very much appears to have lost a mostly unwanted war on Iran.^[2]

Then he depicted himself as Jesus in an artificial idiocy-generated image and attacked Pope Leo XIV for opposing his war on Iran.^[3] When Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni—Trump’s only remaining ally within the European Union—came to the Pope’s defense, Trump turned on her.^[4]

There’s no logic to be seen here and it’s little wonder that there is some bipartisan support for invoking the 25^thamendment.^[5]

The damage to the white Christian nationalist coalition that Trump assembled in his first term from the seven tendencies of conservatism that I had identified in my dissertation^[6] may take a while to repair.

First, Trump overstepped on unauthorized migration, sweeping up legal residents and even U.S. citizens. Multiple people have died at the hands of Department of Homeland Security agents. Democrats are holding up funding for the DHS to try to rein in those excesses. The end here will surely be a much less massive deportation than the Trump administration promised, disappointing many authoritarian populists, paleoconservatives, neoconservatives, social conservatives, and traditionalist conservatives. Second, Trump as probable pedophile repulses many people across the board. Third, Trump’s war on Iran was opposed by many white Christian nationalists, including authoritarian populists, paleoconservatives, capitalist libertarians, and—almost certainly—traditionalist conservatives, but supported by neoconservatives for whom Israel—and Netanyahu in particular—can do no wrong.

When Pope Leo condemned the Iran war, he said what a lot of folks wanted to hear (I certainly have no criticism of these words). In criticizing Leo, Trump sounds much more like a sore loser than the winner Trump’s ego demands he be—and isn’t. Indeed, his response to all of these and other setbacks has been to double down, even as it becomes ever more apparent he cannot prevail, reinforcing his developing image as a loser.

Trump seems unable to course correct. I suspect we’ll be seeing a lot more Hawking radiation before he leaves office.

^[1] Nola Taylor Redd, “The Beginning to the End of the Universe: How black holes die,” Astronomy, January 3, 2026, https://www.astronomy.com/science/the-beginning-to-the-end-of-the-universe-how-black-holes-die/

^[2] Jennifer Rubin, “Words & Phrases,” Contrarian, April 14, 2026, https://www.contrariannews.org/p/words-and-phrases-8d1

^[3] Christian Paz in Cameron Peters to Today, Explained list, “The problem with AI Trump Jesus,” Vox, April 14, 2026, https://www.vox.com/pages/today-explained-newsletter-signup; Ali Walker, “Pope Leo says Trump won’t silence him as US-Vatican feud erupts over Iran, Politico, April 13, 2026, https://www.politico.eu/article/pope-leo-donald-trump-wont-silence-him-us-vatican-feud-over-iran/

^[4] Hannah Roberts, “Trump turns against ‘unacceptable’ Meloni,” Politico, April 14, 2026, https://www.politico.eu/article/trump-turns-against-unacceptable-meloni-says-he-was-wrong-about-her/

^[5] Henry Cuellar, “Support for the Removal of Donald J. Trump from Office,” n.d., https://cuellar.house.gov/uploadedfiles/support_for_the_removal_of_donald_j._trump_from_office.pdf

^[6] David Benfell, “Conservative Views on Undocumented Migration” (doctoral dissertation, Saybrook, 2016). ProQuest (1765416126).

I should preface what I’m about to say by noting I grew up during the Cold War, when “Christian” (more precisely, Protestant^[1]) capitalism was pitted against a “godless communist” (more accurately, authoritarian socialist) monolith in Moscow (somehow conflating China with the Soviet Union), when all-out nuclear war was an ever-present possibility, and indeed, when mutually assured destruction was unironically understood by its acronym MAD. It was “good” versus “evil,” every bit as stupidly hierarchically invidiously monistic as it sounds.

I’m hearing that word “armageddon” again,^[2] in reference to Donald Trump’s vulgar threats against Iranian bridges and power plants^[3] and that “a ‘whole civilization will die tonight.’”^[4] And I’ve seen a concern that Trump may indeed go nuclear,^[5] though the White House now denies this.^[6] (I distrust anything emanating from this administration.)

It is certainly something to contemplate when a war started first, because Binyamin Netanyahu wanted it; second, because Donald Trump needed a distraction from the Jeffrey Epstein files; and third, because war is Pete Hegseth’s idea of a hard-on, may result in the first use of nuclear weapons since the U.S. dropped atom bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki at the end of World War II.

I’m not religious but my thoughts and prayers are for the Iranian people—and for anybody downwind.

Update, April 8, 2026: The worst has not happened yet. “American B-52 bombers were reported to be en route to Iran before the [two-week] ceasefire agreement was announced.”^[7] It opens the Strait of Hormuz and pauses U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran—but not Lebanon. Negotiations are supposedly to begin on Friday in Islamabad, Pakistan, on the basis of an Iranian 10-point plan^[8] which “[Donald] Trump had earlier rejected . . . as ‘not good enough.’”^[9]

This comes as a report emerges that Pete Hegseth has been misleading Trump about the war, which has not conformed to Hegseth’s rosy claims.^[10] Between this and Trump’s acceptance of an Iranian plan as a basis for negotiation, I infer that Iran has the upper hand and that I would not want to be in Hegseth’s position right now—toxic masculinity only gets one so far and often pushes the male beyond that limit, sometimes with catastrophic consequences.

Update, April 9, 2026: It seems there are some discrepancies between what Iran has agreed to and what the U.S. has agreed to. Here’s Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism:

“The press is amplifying market-soothing Trump claims that he has cemented a ceasefire ‘deal’ with Iran and is on a path to a resolution of the war. But there are serious differences between what Iran has said it has agreed to, which is a US capitulation. The only concession Iran appears to have made is to somewhat reduce its Strait of Hormuz transit fee. By contrast, Trump depicts the two week ceasefire as a pause in his threat to end Iran as a civilization over a four-hour period, contingent on Iran fully opening the Strait…to which Iran has not agreed.

“In addition, the Iran terms call for all hostile action to end, including of Israel against Lebanon. But Israel was not a party to this (non-convergent) agreement and is making minimally compliant noises while also reaffirming its intent to continue ethnic cleansing in Lebanon.”^[11]

It’s worth reading Smith’s post in full.

^[1] Richard Tarnas, Passion of the Western Mind (New York: Harmony, 1991).

^[2] Andrew McDonald, “TACO Tuesday?” Politico, April 7, 2026, https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/taco-tuesday/; Nicholas Vinocur, “Trump’s Iran threats set EU on edge,” Politico, April 7, 2026, https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/brussels-playbook/trumps-iran-threats-set-eu-on-edge/

^[3] Dan Rather, “Trump Unhinged,” Steady, April 6, 2026, https://steady.substack.com/p/trump-unhinged

^[4] Al Jazeera, “US denies nuclear plan as deadline on threat to Iran ‘civilisation’ looms,” April 7, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/7/us-denies-nuclear-plan-as-deadline-on-threat-to-iran-civilisation-looms; Gregory Svirnovskiy, “Trump threatens ‘whole civilization will die tonight’ ahead of Iran deadline,” Politico, April 7, 2026, https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/07/trump-iran-deadline-threats-00861313

^[5] Al Jazeera, “US denies nuclear plan as deadline on threat to Iran ‘civilisation’ looms,” April 7, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/7/us-denies-nuclear-plan-as-deadline-on-threat-to-iran-civilisation-looms; Patrick Wintour, “A war of regression: how Trump bombed the US into a worse position with Iran,” Guardian, March 27, 2026, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/27/how-trump-bombed-us-into-worse-position-iran-strategic-failure

^[6] Al Jazeera, “US denies nuclear plan as deadline on threat to Iran ‘civilisation’ looms,” April 7, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/7/us-denies-nuclear-plan-as-deadline-on-threat-to-iran-civilisation-looms

^[7] Andrew Roth, “US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire as Tehran says it will reopen strait of Hormuz,” Guardian, April 8, 2026, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/07/trump-iran-war-ceasefire

^[8] Dave Lawler and Barak Ravid, “U.S. and Iran agree to 2-week ceasefire,” Axios, April 7, 2026, https://www.axios.com/2026/04/07/iran-2-week-ceasfire-trump-pakistan; Andrew Roth, “US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire as Tehran says it will reopen strait of Hormuz,” Guardian, April 8, 2026, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/07/trump-iran-war-ceasefire; Jacob Wendler and Paul McLeary, “Trump announces Iran ceasefire ahead of 8 p.m. deadline,” Politico, April 7, 2026, Trump announces Iran ceasefire ahead of 8 p.m. deadline

^[9] Andrew Roth, “US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire as Tehran says it will reopen strait of Hormuz,” Guardian, April 8, 2026, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/07/trump-iran-war-ceasefire

^[10] Ellie Quinlan Houghtaling, “Pete Hegseth Is Misleading Trump and Us About Iran War,” New Republic, April 7, 2026, https://newrepublic.com/post/208737/pete-hegseth-misleading-donald-trump-iran

^[11] Yves Smith [Susan Webber], “Iran War: MSM Ceasefire Reporting Obscures Iran Agreeing to US Capitulation, Trump Depicting Different Deal; Israel Not a Party, States It Will Not Comply; Reason to Doubt Much Hormuz Traffic Increase Soon, Which Would Mean More Supply Pressure,” Naked Capitalism, April 8, 2026, https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/04/iran-war-msm-ceasefire-reporting-obscures-iran-agreeing-to-us-capitulation-trump-depicting-different-deal-israel-not-a-party-states-it-will-not-comply-reason-to-doubt-much-hormuz-traffic-increase.html

Donald Trump claimed that he has had productive talks with Iran and is therefore delaying threatened strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days.^[1] Iran denied that any such talks have taken place and suggested that his “statements are part of efforts to reduce energy prices and buy time to implement his military plans.”^[2]

Trump then claimed “his envoys, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, had engaged in talks with Iran, and that, ‘We’ve had very strong talks. Mr. Witkoff and Kushner had them. They went perfectly.’ He added, ‘I would say that if they carry through with that, it’ll end that problem, that conflict.’ Trump said there were ‘major points of agreement’ not only on access to the Strait of Hormuz but also on the Iranian nuclear program and the war in general.” Drop Site News’ source, an unnamed “senior Iranian official,” denies this as well.^[3]

All of which raises the question of whom the psychotic, psychopathic, and ragingly narcissistic Trump thinks “his envoys” are negotiating with, if anyone.

Speculation, from multiple outlets, is centering around the Iranian parliament’s speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. He denies it and there is good reason for skepticism, first, that Iran denies that any such talks are occurring; second, that any such talks “would need to be approved by new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and the Supreme National Security Council for them to have any legitimacy;”^[4] and third, this possibility entails a theocracy negotiating with “The Great Satan,” so aptly personified by Trump and Binyamin Netanyahu themselves.

It’s also very apparent that Trump’s and Netanyahu’s war on Iran is not going well, something else Trump refuses to acknowledge. After all, anyone with a brain would have told Trump and Netanyahu they were biting off more than they could chew.

We haven’t been seeing it so much in U.S. media, but the Times of Israel was reporting on casualties and destruction resulting from Iranian munitions penetrating Israeli defenses.^[5] And to peruse the news channels on Telegram has been to see a war that is only escalating.

Trump was threatening Iranian power stations,^[6] which seems an unlikely way to persuade Iranians to rise up against the regime, in a likely doomed effort to persuade that regime to re-open the Strait of Hormuz.^[7] Iranian citizens, indeed, are almost certainly suffering the most from this destructive war but I’m seeing almost no coverage of their plight.

All of which is to say that both sides have ample reason to negotiate.^[8]

My own guess—it seems I’m not alone^[9]—is that Trump is seeking an off-ramp. Trouble here is that I doubt—again, it seems I’m not alone^[10]—that Netanyahu, who has wanted this war for as long as anyone can remember, will go along. Another problem, Jennifer Rubin argues, is that Trump sped right past all the available off-ramps and now faces a situation now more akin to going over Niagara Falls.^[11]

The Hill raises the worrying prospect that “[o]n the flip side, it’s also possible that Trump is bluffing or playing for time to get more American forces to the region. The Wall Street Journal noted Monday afternoon that ‘thousands of U.S. Marines’ are due to arrive in the Middle East on Friday, the same day as Trump’s new five-day deadline.”^[12]

Obviously, I don’t know which it is. Given Trump’s likely dementia, it’s possible he doesn’t know which it is. One thing I’m certain of is that with Trump, we are not playing 12-dimensional chess. After all, he was stupid enough to get us into this war in the first place.

^[1] Donald Trump, “I AM PLEASED TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN . . . .” Truth Social, March 23, 2026, https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116278232362967212

^[2] Mizan News Agency, “Iranian Foreign Ministry: There is no dialogue between Tehran and Washington . . . ,” X, trans. Google, March 23, 2026, https://x.com/MizanNewsAgency/status/2036052143501652206

^[3] Jeremy Scahill and Murtaza Hussain, “Iran Blasts Trump’s Claims of Direct Talks as “Fake News” Aimed at Manipulating Markets,” Drop Site News, March 23, 2026, https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/iran-blasts-trump-claims-direct-talks-false-market-manipulation

^[4] Sarah Shamim, “Is the US talking to Iran’s Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and who is he?” Al Jazeera, March 24, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/24/is-the-us-talking-to-irans-mohammad-bagher-ghalibaf-and-who-is-he

^[5] Emanuel Fabian, Diana Bletter, and Nava Freiberg, “15 injured, one seriously, as Iranian cluster munitions impact in central Israel,” Times of Israel, March 22, 2026, https://www.timesofisrael.com/15-injured-one-seriously-as-iranian-cluster-munitions-impact-in-central-israel/; Times of Israel, “Almost 200 injured, 11 seriously, in Iranian missile strikes on southern cities of Arad, Dimona,” March 22, 2026, https://www.timesofisrael.com/over-100-injured-11-seriously-in-iranian-missile-strikes-on-southern-cities-of-arad-dimona/

^[6] Times of Israel, “48 hours: Trump threatens to ‘obliterate’ Iran’s power plants if Strait of Hormuz remains shut,” March 22, 2026, https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-threatens-to-obliterate-irans-power-plants-if-strait-of-hormuz-remains-shut/

^[7] Times of Israel, “48 hours: Trump threatens to ‘obliterate’ Iran’s power plants if Strait of Hormuz remains shut,” March 22, 2026, https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-threatens-to-obliterate-irans-power-plants-if-strait-of-hormuz-remains-shut/

^[8] Sarah Shamim, “Is the US talking to Iran’s Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and who is he?” Al Jazeera, March 24, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/24/is-the-us-talking-to-irans-mohammad-bagher-ghalibaf-and-who-is-he

^[9] For example, Niall Stanage, “Trump looks for the off-ramp on Iran,” Hill, March 23, 2026, https://thehill.com/homenews/5797090-trump-iran-war-oil-prices-negotiations/

^[10] For example, Niall Stanage, “Trump looks for the off-ramp on Iran,” Hill, March 23, 2026, https://thehill.com/homenews/5797090-trump-iran-war-oil-prices-negotiations/

^[11] Jennifer Rubin, “Words & Phrases,” Contrarian, March 24, 2026, https://www.contrariannews.org/p/words-and-phrases-9dd

^[12] Niall Stanage, “Trump looks for the off-ramp on Iran,” Hill, March 23, 2026, https://thehill.com/homenews/5797090-trump-iran-war-oil-prices-negotiations/

Certainly Donald Trump is likely psychotic and almost certainly a raging narcissist, but I’m inclined to think Medvedev is bluffing: Russia is already stretched thin with its war on Ukraine. Though Russia claims to be able to “completely” destroy the British Army with “two months of our work . . . using conventional methods,”^[2] and is testing its public alert system (so-called “World War III sirens”),^[3] when we speak of World War III, we may well be talking about nuclear war, which, despite occasional saber-rattling,^[4] Russia has so far refrained from in Ukraine.

The claim about destroying the British Army is something of a straw person as Britain is unlikely to be alone in any post-war security arrangements for Ukraine—or in defense of NATO territory^[5] or military bases,^[6] some of which have come under attack by Iran. Indeed, the big problem with the Iran war, quite apart from the madness of U.S., Israeli, and Iranian leadership, is how rapidly it has become a regional war, impacting multiple countries.^[7]

In the past, I have argued that in his pretensions to emulate Peter the Great,^[8] Putin threatens North Atlantic Treaty Organization territory.^[9] A Russian war with NATO would surely turn nuclear, particularly given the difficulties Putin has had in his efforts even to subjugate Ukraine. Which is why a story on where in the U.S. it is safest to be in the event of a nuclear war (short answer: nowhere)^[10] is gaining fresh attention.

In essence, Medvedev is offering a pretext for such a war and it remains to be seen if Putin is sufficiently insane to take it up.

^[1] Joe Harker, “Russia claims WW3 will ‘undoubtedly begin’ as it issues concerning warning to Western ‘pigs,’” LADbible, March 3, 2026, https://www.ladbible.com/news/world-news/russia-claims-ww3-will-begin-064214-20260302

^[2] Vladimir Solovyov, quoted in Olivia Burke, “Russia tests WW3 warning sirens as state TV says it will wipe out British Army in ‘weeks,’” LADbible, March 4, 2026, https://www.ladbible.com/news/world-news/russia-iran-war-putin-warning-siren-test-ww3-british-army-warning-934946-20260304

^[3] Olivia Burke, “Russia tests WW3 warning sirens as state TV says it will wipe out British Army in ‘weeks,’” LADbible, March 4, 2026, https://www.ladbible.com/news/world-news/russia-iran-war-putin-warning-siren-test-ww3-british-army-warning-934946-20260304

^[4] Susan Hudson, “Nuclear war in Ukraine not likely,” University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, October 27, 2022, https://www.unc.edu/discover/nuclear-war-in-ukraine-not-likely/

^[5] Times of Israel, “Iranian missile downed as it heads towards NATO member Turkey,” March 4, 2026, https://www.timesofisrael.com/iranian-missile-downed-as-it-heads-towards-nato-member-turkey/

^[6] Alice Tidey, “Drone attacks on British base in Cyprus spark concern, but no NATO or EU response,” Euronews, March 3, 2026, https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/03/03/drone-attacks-on-british-base-in-cyprus-spark-concern-but-no-nato-or-eu-response

^[7] Barak Ravid, “UAE considers striking Iranian missile sites as regional war spreads,” Axios, March 3, 2026, https://www.axios.com/2026/03/03/uae-iran-missiles-strike-israel

^[8] Nathan Hodge, “Restoration of empire is the endgame for Russia’s Vladimir Putin,” Cable News Network, June 11, 2022, https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/10/europe/russia-putin-empire-restoration-endgame-intl-cmd

^[9] New York Times, “Ukraine Crisis in Maps,” n.d., http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/02/27/world/europe/ukraine-divisions-crimea.html

^[10] Jordan King, “Map Shows Safest US States to Live During Nuclear War,” Newsweek, December 4, 2026, https://www.newsweek.com/safest-us-states-nuclear-war-attack-us-silos-1995408

I have been consistently skeptical of such a campaign as now appears likely because Iran is a larger country than either Afghanistan or Iraq and the U.S. wars in those countries were both failures. It is unclear what Trump really wants: His demands are about nuclear enrichment^[3] but he also seems to seek regime change.^[4]

Regime change is a worthy goal, but any attempt by the U.S. to impose it would surely feed into a “Great Satan” narrative that accompanied the Iranian Revolution in 1979. As Scott Anderson described people he knows in Iran in an interview on National Public Radio, “Most of them, frankly, are not fans of the regime. But what they've all said is that the bombings gave the regime just a new lease on life. It's produced this rallying around the flag effect inside Iran. You know, as a general rule, people don't like being bombed by foreign armies. And they feel the idea of this regime getting toppled or reformed in a significant way has just been pushed off a lot by the actions of the Israelis and the Americans at this point.”^[5]

It is also unclear who would succeed the current regime^[6] and whether they would be any more amenable to Trump’s demands to give up nuclear enrichment.

We have to consider the context. Iran, which apparently sees nuclear enrichment both as a means of projecting strength and as a bargaining chip for easing sanctions,^[7] has been a supporter of Hamas and Hezbollah, groups that Israel has weakened but not eliminated since it began its genocide in Gaza, and there is no shortage of sympathy among ordinary people in the Middle East outside of Israel for the Palestinian cause. Israel’s military accomplishments have not been accompanied by justice and so it is unlikely that any future Iranian government can be less supportive of that cause. Even if it was less supportive, that could only engender a popular conflagration: Israel will not be safer.

Even if Trump accomplishes his goals of destroying Iran’s nuclear program and of regime change in the country, these successes will likely be short term. War is not an answer here.

But it will bolster the toxic masculinity among Trump’s white Christian nationalist base.

^[1] Dan Rather, “We’re On the Brink of War,” Steady, February 19, 2026, https://steady.substack.com/p/were-on-the-brink-of-war; Barak Ravid, “Trump moves closer to a major war with Iran,” Axios, February 18, 2026, https://www.axios.com/2026/02/18/iran-war-trump-military-strikes-nuclear-talks

^[2] Murtaza Hussain, “Iran Likely to Have Moved Nuclear Components Ahead of Fordow Attack: Iranian Nuclear Scientist,” Drop Site, July 1, 2025, https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/iran-nuclear-program-united-states-attacks-israel

^[3] Lyse Doucet and Jeremy Culley, “Iran ready to discuss compromises to reach nuclear deal, minister tells BBC in Tehran,” British Broadcasting Corporation, February 15, 2026, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyz4y3zwz5o

^[4] Drop Site, “U.S. Military Tells Key Middle East Ally to Prepare for Attack on Iran,” January 30, 2026, https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/united-states-iran-imminent-attack-strikes-trump-israel

^[5] Dave Davies, “From allies to enemies: How the 1979 revolution transformed U.S.-Iranian relations,” National Public Radio, August 4, 2025, https://www.npr.org/2025/08/04/nx-s1-5489730/from-allies-to-enemies-how-the-1979-revolution-transformed-u-s-iranian-relations

^[6] Dan Rather, “We’re On the Brink of War,” Steady, February 19, 2026, https://steady.substack.com/p/were-on-the-brink-of-war

^[7] Lyse Doucet and Jeremy Culley, “Iran ready to discuss compromises to reach nuclear deal, minister tells BBC in Tehran,” British Broadcasting Corporation, February 15, 2026, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyz4y3zwz5o

Rather, it’s apparently about Trump feeling snubbed over the Nobel Peace Prize. Even though Denmark, which holds sovereignty over Greenland, is not Norway, and Norway’s government is distinct from the Nobel Prize committee.^[2] He is already threatening additional tariffs until Denmark agrees to “sell” Greenland and has threatened to take control of the territory militarily, which might well end the North Atlantic Treaty Organization—an end Vladimir Putin has long desired.^[3]

There may be another link. A map exists of the “Technate of America,” in which all of North and Central America, and parts (at least) of Venezuela, Columbia, Guyana, Suriname, and French Guiana, are under U.S. control, which would extend as far as Pago Pago in the Pacific. It was the creation of the Technocracy movement,^[4] which (guess who?) Elon Musk’s grandfather was a part of.^[5]

In geographic breadth, it sounds like a neoconservative wet dream: Neoconservatives are so persuaded of the superiority of the U.S. economic and political system to all humans, regardless of history or culture,^[6] that they might well be on board for such an expansion. But the Technocracy movement was about replacing that economic and political system with a technocracy,^[7] which sounds a bit like the aconstitutional broligarchy Trump has very nearly succeeded in imposing.^[8]And given Trump’s affinity for Putin, imagine all this under de facto if not de jure Russian control.

This is, of course, the stuff of madness and while the 25^th amendment to the U.S. Constitution covers this contingency, any hope that Trump’s sycophants will invoke it is unrealistic.^[9] We are, as of today, barely a year into his second term.

^[1] Issy Ronald, “Why does Trump want Greenland and why is it so important?” Cable News Network, January 18, 2025, https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/06/europe/why-trump-wants-greenland-importance-intl

^[2] Anne Applebaum, “Trump’s Letter to Norway Should Be the Last Straw,” Atlantic, January 19, 2026, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/01/trump-letter-to-norway/685676/

^[3] Dan Rather, “Why Is This Man Smiling?” Steady, January 19, 2026, https://steady.substack.com/p/why-is-this-man-smiling

^[4] Cornell University Library, “Technate of America,” April 25, 2024, https://digital.library.cornell.edu/catalog/ss:34227574

^[5] Wikipedia, c.f. Joshua N. Haldeman, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joshua_N._Haldeman - Political_activity_in_Canada

^[6] David Benfell, “Conservative Views on Undocumented Migration” (doctoral dissertation, Saybrook, 2016). ProQuest (1765416126).

^[7] Wikipedia, c.f. Joshua N. Haldeman, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joshua_N._Haldeman - Political_activity_in_Canada

^[8] David Benfell, “It’s an aconstitutional broligarchy now,” Not Housebroken, September 23, 2025, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/its-an-aconstitutional-broligarchy

^[9] Janna Brancolini, “Trump’s Insane New Threat Leaves No Doubt: It’s Time for the 25^th Amendment,” Daily Beast, January 19, 2026, https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trumps-appalling-threat-leaves-no-doubt-its-time-for-the-25th-amendment/

I’m thinking first of Trump’s insistence on a deal for Ukraine to extract rare earths.^[2] He unconvincingly whined that Venezuela “stole” U.S. oil.^[3] Greenland also has rare earths and Trump wants those.^[4] And in the wake of his takeover of Venezuela,^[5] we’re hearing about the “Donroe Doctrine” as he thinks Cuba’s government will collapse, threatens Colombia and Mexico, and renews his threats to annex Greenland, which Denmark may have to surrender for Europe to save Ukraine.^[6]

There are a lot of reasons—none of them good—for what happened in Venezuela^[7] and there’s some doubt that there’s a coherent doctrine at all.^[8] I was thinking, however, of a return to mercantilist imperialism when a Vox newsletter^[9]pointed me at “neo-royalism,” described in the abstract in a context where “the US seems willing to sign deals with traditional adversaries including Russia and China, while targeting long-standing allies like Canada and Denmark.” Neo-royalism, it seems, “centers on ruling cliques, networks of political, capital, and military elites devoted to individual sovereigns, seeking to generate durable material and status hierarchies based on the extraction of financial and cultural tributes.”^[10]

Trump is by no means the first and will by no means be the last ruler to embrace this order. “But Trump’s position at the top of unparallelled power resources including the dollar-based global financial system and US military power, allows him to act as a ‘world orderer,’ with ‘a particular vision of the whole world ... who want to order it in a particular way and, in doing so, create, modify, and reproduce political, economic, and social institutions in the world.’^[11]” And there are a number of ways that Trump could fall.^[12] (I still think he’ll die soon.^[13])

But we are clearly beyond the point where “King Donald I”^[14] can be dismissed as mere hyperbole.

^[1] Jessica Levinson, “The incredible irony at the center of Trump’s case against Nicolás Maduro,” MS Now, January 7, 2026, https://www.ms.now/opinion/maduro-trump-immunity-supreme-court-defense

^[2] David Uren, “The value of Ukraine’s critical minerals is overstated,” Strategist, March 6, 2025, https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-value-of-ukraines-critical-minerals-is-overstated/

^[3] Tobi Raji and Leo Sands, “Trump says Venezuela stole U.S. oil, land and assets. Here’s the history,” Washington Post, January 3, 2026, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/12/20/venezuela-oil-nationalization-expropriation/

^[4] William Booth and Laris Karklis, “Trump covets rare earth riches, but Greenland plans to mine its own business,” Washington Post, July 27, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2025/greenland-minerals-mining-trump-difficulties/

^[5] David Benfell, “Yet another f---ing war,” Not Housebroken, January 3, 2026, https://www.disunitedstates.org/p/yet-another-f-ing-war

^[6] Michael Birnbaum and Dan Lamothe, “White House floats military option for Greenland, rattling Denmark and NATO,” Washington Post, January 6, 2026, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/01/06/white-house-floats-military-option-greenland-rattling-denmark-nato/; Karen DeYoung and David Ovalle, “Trump team puts a target on Cuba, with threats and oil blockade,” Washington Post, January 6, 2026, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/01/06/cuba-venezuela-regime-change-trump-rubio/; Julia Ioffe, “Neocon Don,” Puck, January 5, 2026, https://puck.news/trumps-strike-doctrine-venezuela-iran-new-neocans/; Yves Smith, “Trump’s Greenland Threats: Will He or Won’t He Act?” Naked Capitalism, January 6, 2026, https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/01/trumps-greenland-threats-will-he-or-wont-he-act.html; Ishaan Tharoor, “The crisis over Greenland is here,” Washington Post, January 6, 2026, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2026/01/06/venezuela-greenland-trump-stephen-miller/; Nicholas Vinocur, “Is Greenland next?” Politico, January 5, 2026, https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/brussels-playbook/is-greenland-next/; Nicholas Vinocur, “Europe hugs America close — despite Greenland fears,” Politico, January 6, 2026, https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/brussels-playbook/europe-hugs-america-close-despite-greenland-fears/

^[7] David Benfell, “Hip, hip, hooray for yet another forever war,” Not Housebroken, December 21, 2025, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/hip-hip-hooray-for-yet-another-forever

^[8] Gabe Fleisher, “There is No Trump Doctrine,” Wake Up to Politics, January 5, 2026, https://www.wakeuptopolitics.com/p/there-is-no-trump-doctrine

^[9] Caitlin Dewey to Today, Explained newsletter, “The key to understanding Trump’s foreign policy,” Vox, January 6, 2026, https://link.vox.com/view/60917b5fac7e007ef63bd58aptkbn.qod/e4cfd2c5

^[10] Stacie E. Goddard and Abraham Newman, “Further Back to the Future: Neo-Royalism, the Trump Administration, and the Emerging International System,” International Organization 79, no. S1 (December 2025), S12-S25, doi: 10.1017/S0020818325101057

^[11] [quoted] Zarakol, Ayşe. 2022. Before the West: The Rise and Fall of Eastern World Orders. Cambridge University Press.

^[12] Stacie E. Goddard and Abraham Newman, “Further Back to the Future: Neo-Royalism, the Trump Administration, and the Emerging International System,” International Organization 79, no. S1 (December 2025), S12-S25, doi: 10.1017/S0020818325101057

^[13] David Benfell, “The publicly absent Donald Trump,” Not Housebroken, December 23, 2025, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/the-publicly-absent-donald-trump

^[14] David Benfell, “King Donald I,” Not Housebroken, December 8, 2025, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/king-donald-i

“Explosions, loud noises and low-flying aircraft have been heard in the Venezuelan capital of Caracas, with the president of neighbouring Colombia claiming on social media that the country was under attack. . . . Eyewitnesses reported seeing smoke pouring from two key military installations in Caracas: the La Carlota military airfield at the heart of the city and the Fuerte Tiuna military base where Venezuela’s authoritarian leader, Nicolás Maduro, has long been thought to live.”^[1]

Donald Trump, desperate to distract from the Jeffrey Epstein files and from his declining health, clearly wants to prove his virility. There are no words strong enough to condemn this aggression.

I have been ashamed of the U.S. since the Vietnam War—I was a child then, and I remember refusing to say the Pledge of Allegiance because I couldn’t see how “liberty and justice for all” applied when we were killing southeast Asian people.

I remember when we invaded Grenada—because the Cubans were helping build an international airport there.

I remember when we invaded Panama—because we wanted to arrest Manuel Noriega—as if Panama’s sovereignty was utterly irrelevant.

I remember, in the prelude to the Afghanistan War—George W. Bush had made clear it was coming—hearing on the radio that Bush had said something that made me think the missiles were already in the air (they weren’t). I was driving across the Presidio Heights neighborhood in San Francisco, screaming in my car, “No! No! No!” This was a misguided war from the outset that could only further antagonize Muslims. If, I thought, you wanted more Islamic terrorists, what better way? (And indeed, we might have all but vanquished Al Qaeda, but we failed to dislodge the Taliban and now we have the Islamic State across much of the eastern hemisphere.)

But don’t even get me started on the Iraq War, a war justified through outright lies, that made no sense whatsoever unless you were a neoconservative (this is one reason why I include many Democrats among neoconservatives).

I’ve already said many times what I think of our support for apartheid genocidal Zionist ethnic cleansing.

My disgust has been overwhelming already. And now we’re at war with Venezuela. Words cannot suffice.

Update, January 3, 2026: Donald Trump says U.S. forces have captured Nicolás Maduro. Pam Bondi says Maduro will face retributive ‘justice’ in the U.S.^[2]

“It was not immediately clear what the legal and constitutional authority was for the military operation and the capture and trial of a sovereign head of state. Nor was it clear whether Trump consulted Congress beforehand; it is supposed to be notified by the presidency before any declaration of war.”^[3] These are, of course, the same questions I had of the Panama operation. But we are governed by an aconstitutional broligarchy now.^[4]

“‘We are going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition,’ Trump said in a news conference from his Mar-a-Lago resort. ‘We can’t take a chance that somebody else takes over Venezuela that doesn’t have the good of the Venezuelan people in mind.’ He added that the U.S. would run Venezuela ‘with a group’ and would be ‘designating various people’ in charge — pointing to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. Dan ‘Razin’ Caine behind him.”^[5]

While working on my Ph.D., I noted that most war can be explained as part of a contest between ruling elites over which of them will govern which territories. That ‘transition’ will, of course, be to a Trump-friendly illegitimate ‘puppet’ regime. Venezuela will, for the foreseeable future, be a U.S. colony.

Update, January 4, 2025: Chris Geidner takes up the legality of Donald Trump’s invasion of Venezuela to abduct and arrest Nicolás Maduro at some length. It seems this is even more legally dubious than the operation in Panama, but there is no way under present law to challenge Trump’s action. He recommends legal—even constitutional—changes but asks, “Who are the leaders up to that task?”^[6]

Certainly not the Democrats. In hindsight, it is clear that when Barack Obama said of George W. Bush’s war crimes that “we need to look forward as opposed to looking backwards,”^[7] he wished to preserve a freedom to commit those very same crimes himself. And so we will continue to be a rogue country that routinely violates international and domestic law whenever it seems politically convenient.

In the present day, Democrats seem more concerned by the lack of Congressional authorization for the attack than the attack itself, which many of them actually applaud.^[8]

To be clear, I oppose imperialism. I oppose Russian imperialism. I oppose Israeli imperialism. I oppose U.S. imperialism. I oppose imperialism no matter who the imperialist is. The Democrats are not, and never have been, an anti-imperialist party. And this is a major reason I cannot vote for them at the federal level.

Meanwhile, the puppet regime, initially at least, keeps Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, who will now report to the Trump administration, in charge of the Chavismo governing apparatus.^[9] It appears she will report most directly to Marco Rubio.^[10] I guess we’ll see how that goes.

^[1] Guardian, “Explosions reported in Venezuelan capital Caracas,” January 3, 2026, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/03/explosions-reported-venezuela-caracas

^[2] Jones Hayden, “US captures Venezuela’s Maduro, flies him out of country,” Politico, January 3, 2026, https://www.politico.eu/article/us-strikes-venezuela-captures-maduro-trump-says/

^[3] Tom Phillips, Patricia Torres, and William Christou, “US has captured Venezuela’s President Maduro and wife, says Trump,” Guardian, January 3, 2026, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/03/explosions-reported-venezuela-caracas

^[4] David Benfell, “It’s an aconstitutional broligarchy now,” Not Housebroken, September 23, 2025, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/its-an-aconstitutional-broligarchy

^[5] Ali Bianco and Eli Okun, “Trump takes Maduro — and takes over Venezuela,” Politico, January 3, 2026, https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2026/01/03/trump-takes-maduro-and-takes-over-venezuela-00709658

^[6] Chris Geidner, “A new, old type of lawlessness as Trump attacks Venezuela — and an opening for a better America,” Law Dork, January 3, 2026, https://www.lawdork.com/p/venezuela-maduro-trump-lawlessness-america

^[7] David Johnston and Charlie Savage, “Obama Reluctant to Look Into Bush Programs,” New York Times, January 11, 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/12/us/politics/12inquire.html

^[8] Andrew Solender, “’It looks weak’: Dems fume at their party's response to Maduro capture,” Axios, January 4, 2026, https://www.axios.com/2026/01/04/maduro-venezuela-democrats-trump-congress

^[9] Rory Carroll, “Delcy Rodríguez strikes defiant tone but must walk tightrope as Venezuela’s interim leader,” Guardian, January 4, 2026, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/04/delcy-rodriguez-tightrope-venezuela-interim-leader

^[10] John Hudson and Adam Taylor, “Rubio takes on most challenging role yet: Viceroy of Venezuela,” Washington Post, January 4, 2026, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/01/04/rubio-venezuela-maduro/

At some point, a long, long time ago, it became apparent to me that this “repeated compulsion of making the same mistakes all over again” is no mistake. This is a party that is in fact desperate to sit in opposition where it can complain about Republicans without ever actually being expected to accomplish anything. Their bitterest critique of Donald Trump is that he is upsetting the status quo.

Solomon points to examples like “Ilhan Omar, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Rashida Tlaib, Summer Lee and Ro Khanna” as “strong progressives” who would not have been elected but for the Democratic Party, but while it’s one thing for progressives to have a voice, it’s quite another for them to have an effective voice: These members of Congress mostly serve to cover the Democrats’ left flank as their party pursues reliably neoliberal policies. The more recognizable progressives in his list are generally not in fact particularly effective legislators: Omar scores 0.164 on the legislative effectiveness scale, Ocasio-Cortez scores 0.276, and Tlaib scores 0.182. Lee scores 0.768. Khanna is the only one in the green at 1.215.^[2]

For the Democrats, there is indeed nothing to be learned from 2024. They wanted to lose, they deserved—with their embrace of Israeli genocide and their gaslighting on the economy—to lose, and they did lose.

^[1] Norman Solomon, “Why is the Democratic party hiding its 2024 autopsy report?” Guardian, December 30, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/dec/30/democratic-party-autopsy-report-2024-election

^[2] Center for Effective Lawmaking, “118th Congress > House > All Issues,” n.d., https://thelawmakers.org/find-representatives

“So fuckin' stupid that we have to constantly disable more and more settings they've randomly added to get around the fact that we've disabled all the settings. It's just the fucking worst, people that run companies are all brain-dead assholes.”^[1]

Broligarchs are remarkably obsessed with ramming artificial idiocy down our throats even where we don’t want it and despite our considerable skepticism.^[2] In essence, despite all the ‘hallucinated’ ‘slop,’ they are convinced that they know what’s good for us, or that they can make money on it (though “profits remain scarce, and some economists are warning of an impending bubble,” and “the potential return on these massive investments remains murky”^[3]), or both.

Having begun my adult life in high technology—this was in the late 1970s to mid-1980s—I know something of the empowerment that people who work in this industry can feel as they create new ways to get technology to do useful things. It’s an empowerment that leads to arrogance, an arrogance we see whenever we are baffled by technology that developers conceive as brain-dead obvious; when, having finally mastered one bit, we are confronted with an upgrade that demands we figure it all out again; when, as with artificial idiocy, quantitative methods are applied to qualitative problems, leaving us with unsatisfactory “solutions” presumed to work for most of us most of the time; when buggy products are released by delusional developers who think testing is for other people; when we seek user support and are treated to artificial idiocy; and when developers reply to such complaints with a collective “not us!” or “not all developers!”

Guys—and yes, most developers are still men—I’ve been there and I know better. It’s toxic masculinity just as surely as the drivers of pickup trucks “rolling coal,” just as surely as in the antics that raise doubts as to how any men survive to reproduce, just as surely as in pointless aggression. And as for the women, they’re largely competing to out-“man” the men. So spare me.

Mozilla (the developer of Firefox) is far from alone in pushing artificial idiocy on us without our consent. I remember, even six years ago, before I left the San Francisco Bay Area, seeing billboard after billboard hyping artificial idiocy as the greatest thing since rubbing two sticks together to produce fire. Artificial idiocy is everywhere now, without our consent, while broligarchs smack their lips with delight over the labor costs they’re sure they’ll reduce (and they neglect the question of who will be able to afford to buy their products).

It’s a form of assault.

^[1] Craig P, Mastodon, December 26, 2025, https://mastodon.social/@Craigp/115788765657548672

^[2] Brian Kennedy et al., “How Americans View AI and Its Impact on People and Society,” Pew Research Center, September 17, 2025, https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2025/09/17/how-americans-view-ai-and-its-impact-on-people-and-society/

^[3] Danielle Kost, “AI Companies Don’t Have a Profitable Business Model. Does That Matter?” Harvard Business Review, November 12, 2025, https://hbr.org/2025/11/ai-companies-dont-have-a-profitable-business-model-does-that-matter